Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
107 AM PDT Tue May 14 2024
SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably warm weather will result in areas of moderate heat
risk through Thursday. A few isolated, late day showers or
thunderstorms will be possible over the Sierra this afternoon and
evening. Otherwise, mostly dry and locally breezy conditions look
to accompany this warm stretch.
.DISCUSSION
(Today through Friday)...
Warmer temperatures today. Weak northerly flow over the parts of
the central valley today will help to start a brief warming trend
through Wednesday with Wednesday expected to be the warmest day
this week. The hottest temperatures could be near 100 degrees for
parts of the central and northern Sacramento valley with a 20 to
65 percent probability of reaching 100 degrees on Wednesday. The
greatest probability of reaching a 100 degrees is in the western
central Sacramento valley. Flow through the Delta will help to
keep temperatures cooler further south in the low to mid 90s. Some
cooling is expected on Thursday with a little better cooling for
areas with a Delta influence as the Delta breeze is expected to
increase starting late Wednesday/Wednesday night. Moderate heat
risk is expected today and Wednesday for most of the central
valley with the exception of areas with a Delta influence that
will have a minor heat risk. Continued Moderate heat risk for a
smaller portion of the central valley Thursday, with the highest
risk in the central Sacramento valley.
The high pressure ridge will begin to breakdown on Thursday with
the north valley winds ending and shifting southerly in the
Sacramento valley during the day. This along with a continued
moderate Delta breeze will help to lead to cooling over the
interior for Friday.
One more day of afternoon and early evening thunderstorms with a
chance mainly around highway 88 and south today. Thunderstorms
should be starting near the crest for the western slopes then the
storms look to be moving south-southwest to west direction mostly
this evening. Slight movement of any storms is expected this
afternoon. Local heavy rainfall and mostly small hail is expected
with thunderstorms today.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION
(Saturday THROUGH Tuesday)...
Cooling trend through the extended forecast period as upper
troughing increases over interior NorCal. High temperatures cool
from around 6 to 12 degrees above normal Saturday, to seasonal
normal Tuesday. Increasing instability with lowering heights will
lead to a slight chance of isolated afternoon showers or
thunderstorms over the Northern Sierra Nevada Monday and Tuesday.
