FXUS66 KSTO 270856
AFDSTO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
156 AM PDT Sat Jul 27 2024
SYNOPSIS...
Cooler temperatures today lasting through the middle of next week,
then an increase in high temperatures. Onshore flow will help
raise humidity values and lower fire weather risks. Locally
breezy conditions in the Delta.
.Key Points...
- Cooling trend this weekend with gradual warming trend by the
middle of next week.
- Smoke and haze from California fires will effect the northern
Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills.
.Discussion...
Temperatures are around 5-15 degrees cooler than this time 24
hours ago around the area, with only Redding AP reporting a
temperature 5 degrees warmer. Onshore flow creating gusty
conditions in the Delta and Sacramento areas, along with some
stratus intrusion from the marine layer making its way just south
of Travis AFB. A weak and dry upper level low is projected to
continue to move through the area this weekend which will help
keep our temperatures cooler by some 10 degrees across the
region. As the low continues to move through the area, the winds
should also start to become slightly breezy as opposed to the
gusty winds we have been experiencing the past few days.
An increase in humidity values and weakening winds will lower the
fire weather conditions this weekend, although with dry fuels it
will still be important to practice fire safety during this time.
As we move into next week and the start of the work week, we will
temperatures starting to rise into the mid 80s to low 90s. A ridge
of high pressure is projected to develop in the Southern Plains
which will raise our heights and slightly increase temperatures.
The Delta Breeze will continue to promote cooler temperatures in
influenced areas and help keep us relatively close to
climatological normal high temperatures.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION
(Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)...
On Wednesday, the return of of triple-digit high temperatures will
once again become a possibility for the region. The National Blend
of Models advertises a 10-40% chance of reaching/exceeding 100 for
portions of the northern Sacramento Valley, mainly in the
Redding/Red Bluff areas on Wednesday. Thursday and Friday will see
much of the same, with widespread mid to upper 90s for the
Central/Southern Sacramento Valleys and Northern San Joaquin
Valley. Ensembles show a ridge of high pressure moving into the
Four Corners region as we enter the end of next week. Clusters are
generally in good agreement of this pattern taking shape once
again, so we can at least anticipate a return to near normal high
temperatures and monsoonal moisture making a push on the back
side of the ridge. For now, it is too early to know if any rain
showers/storms may develop along the Sierra Crest, so we will
continue to monitor trends and update the forecast accordingly.
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