FXUS66 KSTO 282310
AFDSTO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
310 PM PST Mon Nov 28 2022
SYNOPSIS...
Cool and dry weather Tuesday and Wednesday with near freezing
minimum temperatures in the Central Valley. A winter storm arrives
Wednesday through the weekend.
.DISCUSSION
...
A mainly dry system passing through this evening could bring a
few snow flurries to the higher mountain, with otherwise dry
weather continuing. Some haze/mist is possible over the northern
San Joaquin Valley Tuesday morning. Mostly clear skies and a
colder airmass behind the departing system will bring cold morning
lows near freezing and areas of frost for early Tuesday. Lows are
expected to be in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Wednesday morning
could be a little colder, though high clouds from an approaching
storm could keep that could potentially keep that from happening.
Good run-to-run ensemble consistency continues with an
approaching winter storm. This is a cold system, so heavy mountain
snow will be the main issue, with some light snow even possible
into the upper foothills. Confidence is high that snow will bring
major travel impacts to area mountains. Snowfall totals currently
projected are 1 foot to as much as 3 feet of snow through Friday
morning. Snow will start in the mountains of Shasta County
Wednesday afternoon, and then spread southward through the
evening. Heaviest snow is forecast for Thursday, then decreasing
by early Friday. Heavy snow is expected above 3000 feet for the
Sierra and the mountains of western Plumas County and Lassen
National Park, but a dusting to 3 inches of snow is possible above
2500 feet. A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect from Wednesday
evening through Friday morning for above 3000 feet in those areas.
There is a also a Winter Storm Watch in effect for the mountains
of Shasta County and the northern Coastal Range above 2000 feet,
where colder air will bring lower snow levels.
In addition to snow, gusty winds are projected with the coming
storm. Gusts to 55 to 65 mph could bring blowing snow and whiteout
conditions at times. In the Valley, winds could gust to 25 to 35
mph. Make sure decorations and outdoor furniture are secured.
Rain totals through Friday could reach 1 to 2 inches in the
Valley, 1 1/2 to 3 inches in the foothills. The cold nature of
this storm and lower snow levels should limit the potential for
burn scar impacts. //EK
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION
(Friday THROUGH Monday)...
A period of cold and unsettled weather is likely to continue
across the region through the weekend. The first system will be
winding down by early Friday, with models trending faster with the
system. The next storms system will impact the region Friday
night through Sunday bringing additional precipitation to interior
Northern California. Clusters indicate improving confidence in
the timing and location of this second trough. The GEFS indicates
a weaker IVT plume with the second system and thus somewhat less
favorable moisture. Nevertheless, impactful snow is possible over
the mountains for the second half of the weekend, so Sunday looks
like the most difficult travel day. Current projections show 1 to
2 feet. Stay tuned for more details.
Behind that, drier weather returns early next week with potential
for more near-freezing temperatures in the valley Monday and
Tuesday mornings.
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