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Northern CA Forecast Discussion
FXUS66 KSTO 282310 AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
310 PM PST Mon Nov 28 2022

SYNOPSIS...
Cool and dry weather Tuesday and Wednesday with near freezing minimum temperatures in the Central Valley. A winter storm arrives Wednesday through the weekend.


.DISCUSSION

... A mainly dry system passing through this evening could bring a few snow flurries to the higher mountain, with otherwise dry weather continuing. Some haze/mist is possible over the northern San Joaquin Valley Tuesday morning. Mostly clear skies and a colder airmass behind the departing system will bring cold morning lows near freezing and areas of frost for early Tuesday. Lows are expected to be in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Wednesday morning could be a little colder, though high clouds from an approaching storm could keep that could potentially keep that from happening. Good run-to-run ensemble consistency continues with an approaching winter storm. This is a cold system, so heavy mountain snow will be the main issue, with some light snow even possible into the upper foothills. Confidence is high that snow will bring major travel impacts to area mountains. Snowfall totals currently projected are 1 foot to as much as 3 feet of snow through Friday morning. Snow will start in the mountains of Shasta County Wednesday afternoon, and then spread southward through the evening. Heaviest snow is forecast for Thursday, then decreasing by early Friday. Heavy snow is expected above 3000 feet for the Sierra and the mountains of western Plumas County and Lassen National Park, but a dusting to 3 inches of snow is possible above 2500 feet. A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect from Wednesday evening through Friday morning for above 3000 feet in those areas. There is a also a Winter Storm Watch in effect for the mountains of Shasta County and the northern Coastal Range above 2000 feet, where colder air will bring lower snow levels. In addition to snow, gusty winds are projected with the coming storm. Gusts to 55 to 65 mph could bring blowing snow and whiteout conditions at times. In the Valley, winds could gust to 25 to 35 mph. Make sure decorations and outdoor furniture are secured. Rain totals through Friday could reach 1 to 2 inches in the Valley, 1 1/2 to 3 inches in the foothills. The cold nature of this storm and lower snow levels should limit the potential for burn scar impacts. //EK


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION

(Friday THROUGH Monday)... A period of cold and unsettled weather is likely to continue across the region through the weekend. The first system will be winding down by early Friday, with models trending faster with the system. The next storms system will impact the region Friday night through Sunday bringing additional precipitation to interior Northern California. Clusters indicate improving confidence in the timing and location of this second trough. The GEFS indicates a weaker IVT plume with the second system and thus somewhat less favorable moisture. Nevertheless, impactful snow is possible over the mountains for the second half of the weekend, so Sunday looks like the most difficult travel day. Current projections show 1 to 2 feet. Stay tuned for more details. Behind that, drier weather returns early next week with potential for more near-freezing temperatures in the valley Monday and Tuesday mornings.






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