975
FXUS66 KSTO 082055
AFDSTO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1255 PM PST Sun Nov 8 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather, above normal temperatures, and periodically
breezy north to east winds Tuesday through Friday
- Shift toward active weather pattern late week into early the
next week, with the potential for heavy rain and heavy mountain
snow, and gusty onshore winds; Low confidence persists in the
timing and amount of potential precipitation
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today-Mid Week:
Warm and mainly dry weather continues through mid-week with
generally high pressure ridging over the area. A weak disturbance
passes to the north today, and another Monday afternoon,
flattening the ridge slightly. No precipitation is expected today,
with just a slight chance of light showers extending from the
coast into far northwestern Shasta County Monday afternoon.
Light winds, mostly clear skies and some low level moisture will
bring the potential for some morning mist and some patchy fog
Monday morning. The lack of wet ground will limit this to mainly
areas near area rivers and lakes. The best potential is around the
Delta, Sacramento metro area and the northern San Joaquin Valley,
though models hint this could spread as far north as Marysville.
Probabilities for visibility dropping below a mile are around
30-50% for metro areas, 50-70% for adjacent rural portions of the
area. This fog and mist are expected to quickly mix out and
disperse by late morning. The potential for fog/mist Tuesday
morning shifts to mainly south of I-80, with a 20-50% chance of
visibility dropping below a mile.
Temperatures trend a little warmer early this week as ridging
rebounds. Highs peak on Tuesday, into the mid to upper 70s for the
Valley and Delta, about 10 degrees above normal for this time of
year. As the ridge axis shifts eastward Wednesday, temperatures
will decrease slightly, but will still be about 5 to 10 degrees
above normal.
The building ridge pattern will bring some breezy northerly winds
in the Valley Tuesday, though gusts should generally be limited
to 15 to 20 mph, peaking mid-day. East to northeast winds develop
over mountain ridges and through canyons Tuesday night into early
Wednesday, with gusts locally to around 20 to 30 mph.
Late Week Into Next Weekend:
Ensembles continue to show the potential for a shift toward an
active weather pattern by the weekend, with chances for heavy
rain, heavy mountain snow and breezy winds. However, cluster
guidance still indicates uncertainty regarding the exact position,
timing and development an approaching trough from the Gulf of
Alaska toward the California coast. Ensembles continue to trend
toward a further southward trajectory of the initial ejecting
shortwave, closing off well off the coast Wednesday-Thursday as
strong high pressure ridging centered over the 4-Corners region
persists. The main trough moves inland Friday into the weekend,
with the ridging shifting eastward. This brings the general onset
of precipitation from sometime between Friday and Saturday. The
likely wettest period will be over the weekend. The spread between
forecast low and high end amounts of rainfall and mountain snow
totals remains quite large, with a range of possibilities.
Overall though, confidence in a cool, wet, unsettled pattern late
week into early the next week continues to increase. Anyone with
travel or outdoor plans should be sure to stay up to date with the
latest forecast information.
&&
.AVIATION...
General VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail at TAF
sites over the next 24 hours, although there is a 40-70% chance
for MVFR/IFR visibility in FG/BR at Valley and Delta sites
returning after 09z this evening and continuing at times through
17z. Light and variable winds persist across the forecast period at
TAF sites.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
