193
FXUS66 KSTO 031836
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1136 AM PDT Fri Jul 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Warmer and more seasonable temperatures today through July
   4th, followed by a gradual cooling trend.

 - Slight chance (5-15%) for isolated mountain thunderstorms today
   in the Sierra, primarily south of I-80, today through Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Mostly clear conditions prevail this morning across NorCal. Broad
upper-level troughing with overall zonal heights aloft are
allowing for slightly weaker onshore flow. Current pattern will
bring in the possibility of afternoon/evening thunderstorms in the
Sierra today through Monday, with a general 5-15% chance and best
chances mainly south of I-80. Troughing expected to break down
slowly and move east throughout the weekend, allowing for ridging
developing in the desert southwest which will help bring in
slightly warmer high temperatures today and for Independence Day.

Triple-digit heat is expected for portions of the northern
Sacramento Valley for July 4th, with areas of Moderate HeatRisk.
Elsewhere in the Valley, mid to upper 90s, with Minor HeatRisk.
Regardless of the HeatRisk, if you are planning on any outdoor
activities for Independence Day be sure to drink plenty of water,
apply sunscreen, and always wear a life jacket if you are on area
waterways! For evening/night events, temperatures at 8PM PDT will
be cooling as the sun sets. Except mostly clear conditions with
temperatures in the low to mid 80s in Delta Breeze influenced
areas with warmer, low to mid 90s in the northern Sacramento
Valley. Similar conditions are expected tomorrow evening/night
around 8PM, but Delta Breeze influenced areas will be slightly
cooler with temperatures around 70-76, mid 80s in the rest of the
Valley, and mid to upper 90s still lingering in the northern
Sacramento Valley. Lastly, please remember to practice fire safety
by adhering to local and state burn bans, firework laws, properly
discarding matches/cigarettes, not driving over dry grass, and
report any new fires to 9-1-1.

Into next week, broad troughing is expected to redevelop offshore,
thanks to an upper low in the Gulf of Alaska. We will see our high
temperatures cool once again, to slightly below seasonal normals.
Onshore flow is expected to become a little stronger, helping
mitigate the temperatures and keep air moving through the CWA. We
will keep afternoon/evening t-storm chances in the Sierra through
Monday. Overall, Minor HeatRisk with slightly cooler than normal
temperatures are forecast through most of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Southwest to
west wind gusts 15 to 25 kts in the Delta and over the Sierra
Crest. South to southwest winds in the Sacramento Valley
(northwest in the northern SJ Valley). Gusts from 10 to 20 kts
from 22Z Friday to 08Z Saturday in the southern Sacramento and
northern San Joaquin Valleys, otherwise gusts less than 12 kts
everywhere in the Valley.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$