Forecast from NOAA-NWS for Placerville CA. |
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Weather Forecast Discussion
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294 FXUS66 KSTO 201930 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1230 PM PDT Mon Jul 20 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Monsoonal and subtropical moisture pushing through the area next few days, mainly bringing sprinkles or a stray shower to Valley; slight chances for higher elevation thunderstorms. - Seasonable high temperatures continue, Minor HeatRisk with areas of Moderate HeatRisk through Wednesday, then widespread Minor HeatRisk into the weekend. - Elevated fire weather conditions due to dry/wet thunderstorms chances in the higher elevations today through Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Mid-level to high clouds passing through the area this afternoon, as subtropical moisture is pushing towards California from Post-Tropical Cyclone Elida. A few sprinkles/light showers have been observed at lower elevations through the morning, however nothing significant has reached the ground. We will continue to have scattered cloud coverage in the Valley throughout the rest of the day, while in the Sierra monsoonal moisture associated with a high pressure in the Rockies moves in. While the NBM has roughly 10-20% chances for an afternoon shower or dry/wet thunderstorm this afternoon, primary limiting factor will once again be the lack of instability. Forecast soundings in higher elevations do not reveal much in the form of MUCAPE or elevated instability in our CWA. Better instability and vorticity/forcing will reside along and east of the Sierra crest. Similar conditions expected tomorrow however better thunderstorm chances in the Sierra are expected. Slightly stronger push of monsoonal moisture coupled with ridge-riding shortwaves may help provide additional instability to produce thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours. As such, with the threat of lightning from any storm that develops, elevated fire weather conditions will continue through Wednesday mainly from the risk of new fire starts from lightning outside of rain cores. Our precipitation chances will begin to back off Thursday as off shore troughing takes over the synoptic setup and the ridge in the rockies begins to dig further south into the Four Corners region with drier air embedded limiting convection potential for our CWA. Temperature wise, we continue to be mostly seasonable for the next few days, with mostly Minor HeatRisk and areas of Moderate HeatRisk in the Valley. Warmest day in the short-term forecast is Wednesday, where triple-digit heat is expected in the northern Sacramento Valley and mid to upper 90s for the rest of the Valley. "Cooler" temperatures Thursday and Friday, then a return to mid 90s and triple-digits expected. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions next 24 hours across interior NorCal TAF sites. SCT to BKN clouds across the Delta and Sacramento areas. Surface winds below 12 knots except in Delta vicinity where gusts of 25 to 30 knots possible through around 06z Tuesday. Slight thunderstorm chances in higher elevations from 20z through 07z. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ |
| Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS | Script developed by: El Dorado Weather |
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