378
FXUS66 KSTO 062050
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1250 PM PST Fri Nov 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Dry weather, above normal temperatures, and periodically breezy
   winds through the weekend and into mid next week

 - Potential shift toward active weather pattern late next week.
   Low confidence persist in the timing of potential
   precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today-Mid Week:

Warm and dry weather continues under upper level ridging, with
periodically breezy winds expected into Saturday AM. Downslope
northeast to east winds will remain strongest along the Sierra
during the overnight and early morning hours, with gusts 25 to 35
mph look to develop tonight into Saturday AM for the Sierra and
adjacent foothills.

Afternoon high temperatures will remain 5-10 degrees above normal,
with widespread Valley and foothills high temperatures in the low
to mid 70s and widespread mountain high temperatures firmly into
the 60s. With the transition from northwesterly flow aloft to
ridging aloft, winds are expected to decrease throughout the day
on Saturday, remaining generally light area wide across the rest
of the weekend.

As the ridge axis shifts eastward a broad area of west-souhwest
flow and weak troughing aloft looks to build in Sunday into next
week. Despite this upper level shift, high heights aloft look to
persist at least into the middle of next week. This flow pattern
should usher in a gradual return toward light onshore flow
alongside continued warmer than normal high temperatures. Daytime
temperatures are forecast to remain above normal early to mid
next week, with Valley and foothill highs in the upper 60s to mid
70s.

Late Next Week:

Ensembles continue to indicate the potential for a shift toward
an active weather pattern late next week into next weekend, with
chances for heavy rain, heavy mountain snow and breezy winds.
However, cluster guidance still indicates uncertainty regarding
the position and timing of the upcoming trough. The anticipated
southward progression of deep troughing over the Gulf of Alaska
toward the California coast remains the largest piece of
uncertainty at this time. Latest blended guidance regarding
precipitation onset continues to trend towards late next week and
into next weekend. Regardless, the CPC 8-14 Day Outlook (Nov.
14-20) does continue to highlight a moderate risk for heavy rain
and heavy mountain snow, as well as a slight chance for high winds
which can be anticipated once the pattern does indeed shift. Be
sure to stay up to date with the latest forecast information and
check back for updates as we get closer.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail at TAF sites
over the next 24 hours. Winds will be lighter, remaining less
than 12 kts at TAF sites, but still from a generally north to east
direction. Breezy east-northeast winds increase along the Sierra
and upper foothills gusting up to 20-30 kts after 00z Saturday,
slowly decreasing after 09z but maintaining similar direction. .

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$