180
FXUS66 KSTO 121810
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1110 AM PDT Tue May 12 2026

For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the
next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing.

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Temperatures will trend less hot today and will be noticeably
   cooler by Wednesday, though still be above normal.

 - Temperatures trend warmer late week into the weekend, with
   areas of Moderate HeatRisk returning

 - Gusty north to east winds are expected for the weekend, coupled
   with low humidity, bringing elevated fire weather concerns for
   lower elevations

&&

.DISCUSSION...

....Today...
Warm weather but cooler than yesterday is expected with widespread
Minor HeatRisk throughout the forecast area. The Valley will see
afternoon highs in the 80s and 90s with warmest weather across the
lower foothills and northern San Joaquin Valley. This evening will
see a trough push our ridging further east and alleviate some of
our heat impacts midweek.

...Wednesday through Weekend...

As the ridge pulls eastward, we will see cooling on Wednesday
returning highs to the 80s and Minor HeatRisk across the Valley.
Ensembles continue to trend drier for the trough passage with most
locations now remaining dry outside of slight shower chances over
Shasta County. Overall, expecting little to no impacts from
precipitation over the next several days.

Concerns for gusty northerly winds are increasing for the weekend
as ensembles are starting to lean more towards an inside-slider
type shortwave shifting into the Great Basin. Today`s models
trended slightly weaker for Saturday but stronger on Sunday in
regards to wind strength but similar affected areas. Current
forecast have north winds gusts of 30 to 45 MPH this weekend,
strongest on Sunday and along Interstate 5.

Additionally, dry conditions develop particularly over the
Sacramento Valley, especially north of Interstate 80, with the NBM
showing minimum Relative Humidity getting into the teens and
upper single digits. Ultimately, this brings elevated fire
weather concerns for the Valley and portions of the Delta and will
continue to monitor model trends to evaluate strength of
winds/drying effect over the Valley.

Saturday`s Chances for Wind Gusts > 35 MPH: 40-60%
Sunday`s Chances for Wind Gusts > 35 MPH: 60-85%

Please continue to practice fire safety and monitor your latest
forecast to stay up to date at weather.gov/sacramento

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Breezy
south-southwest wind gusts up to 15-25 kts in the Valley and
Delta, and up to 25-35 kts over the mountains until around 06z-09z
Wednesday. Locally breezy west-northwest winds develop after 18z
Wednesday, with gusts up to 15-20 kts across portions of the
southern Sacramento Valley, northern San Joaquin Valley and Delta
and gusts up to 25-35 kts over the Sierra.


&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$