906
FXUS66 KSTO 272142
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
142 PM PST Fri Feb 27 2026

For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the
next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing.

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Showers and thunderstorms mainly over the northern Sacramento
   Valley, foothills and mountains this weekend into Monday,
   otherwise dry weather prevails

 - Warming conditions likely over the next week with above normal
   temperatures

 - Light showers over the northern Sacramento Valley, foothills
   and mountains on Wednesday, followed by breezy north to east
   winds Thursday-Friday

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...Today...
Warm and dry weather prevails across the area as ridging remains
in place. Forecast highs are expected to be in the 70s in the
Valley and foothills, and 50s to 70s in the mountains. Patchy fog
may develop tonight into Saturday morning, mainly across portions
of the southern Sacramento and northern San Joaquin valleys.

...Saturday - Sunday...
Ensemble guidance indicates an upper level low approaching the
West Coast and moving into California this weekend into early next
week. This will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area with
best chances over the northern/central Sacramento Valley and in
the foothills and mountains. The National Blend of Models (NBM)
shows roughly a 15-40% chance of thunderstorms on Saturday and a
10-30% chance on Sunday over those aforementioned locations with
best chances to see storms from 1 PM - 9 PM, potentially
lingering into the overnight hours. Heavy downpours, gusty winds,
and potentially severe hail are the main threats with any
thunderstorms that develop. Very light high elevation mountain
snow is possible above 6500 feet late Sunday into Monday, with
amounts generally less than 2 inches at the highest peaks.

Warmer than average temperatures are also favored to continue over
this timeframe with highs generally in the 60s to 70s in the
Valley and foothills, and 50s to 70s in the mountains.

...Monday-Tuesday...
Lingering showers are expected over the Sierra through Monday,
otherwise dry weather is anticipated as ridging builds back into
the region briefly. Afternoon highs in the 60s throughout the
Valley with fairly quiet weather.

...Mid to Late Week...
A trough moving into the Pacific Northwest clips the area by mid-
week, bringing some light showers to the northern Sacramento
Valley, foothills and mountains north of Highway 50 on Wednesday.
Dry conditions return on Thursday, with breezy north to east
winds developing behind the system. NBM probabilities of wind
gusts greater than 30 mph sit around 50-70% for Thursday, with the
highest chances along and west of I-5 and mountains.

&&
.AVIATION...


General VFR conditions with light north to east winds until 06z
Saturday before patchy MVFR conditions from mist with a low chance
of IFR to LIFR conditions impacting the Sacramento area (SMF,
MCC, MHR, and SAC) from 10z to 15z Saturday. Chances for vicinity
showers over N Sac Valley (KRDD) near 18z Saturday ahead scattered
showers and thunderstorms afterwards.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$