645
FXUS66 KSTO 012040 AAD
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1240 PM PST Sun Mar 1 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Showers and thunderstorms mainly over the northern Sacramento
   Valley, foothills and mountains today, otherwise dry weather
   prevails

 - Chances for patchy Valley fog and low clouds with near normal
   temperatures tonight through midweek.

 - Light showers over the northern Sacramento Valley, foothills
   and mountains on Wednesday, followed by breezy north to east
   winds Thursday-Friday and a gradual warming trend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...Today...
An upper low will continue to move through California today,
bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms to the
northern Sacramento Valley and the foothills/mountains. The best
potential for thunderstorm development remains over the
northern/central Sacramento Valley. Probabilities for
thunderstorms are between 20-40%, with higher end probabilities
localized to Shasta County. Thunderstorm development will be
possible throughout the early afternoon, but CAMs show more robust
cells developing in the late afternoon/early evening over western
Shasta County. Any storms that develop will have the potential to
produce frequent lightning, small hail, and heavy rain, with
stronger cells potentially capable of severe-level hail.

Very light high elevation mountain snow is possible above 6000
feet late tonight, with amounts less than 2 inches at the highest
peaks south of US 50.

Additionally, low clouds are possible in the Valley tonight into
Monday morning along with reduced visibilities. The HREF is
highlighting 20 to 40% probabilities for 1/2 mile or less in the
around Sacramento tonight into Monday morning.

...Monday-Tuesday...
Lingering showers are expected over the Sierra early on Monday,
before dry weather prevails through Tuesday with near normal high
temperatures and chances for patchy Valley fog.

...Wednesday to Saturday...
A trough moving into the Pacific Northwest clips the area by mid-
week, bringing some light showers to the northern Sacramento
Valley, foothills and mountains north of Highway 50 on Wednesday.
Dry conditions return on Thursday, with breezy north to east
winds developing behind the system Thursday and Friday. NBM
probabilities of wind gusts greater than 30 mph sit around 60-80%
for both days, with the highest probability along and west of I-5
and mountains.

Warmer weather is expected toward the end of week period and
heading into the weekend, as high temperatures warm to near- to
slightly above normal.

&&


.AVIATION...
Chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms over the northern
Sacramento Valley (RDD and RBL), foothills and mountains through
this evening, bringing areas of MVFR conditions and localized IFR.
Low ceilings and mist will bring patchy MVFR and IFR to the
Valley through the day with some clearing possible after 21Z.

There`s higher confidence regarding more widespread MVFR with
patchy IFR conditions from mist and low ceilings in the Valley
after 06Z Monday and continuing through 18Z. Surface winds
generally less than 12 kts next 24 hours, except for erratic winds
near thunderstorms.


&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$