241
FXUS66 KSTO 291932
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1232 PM PDT Wed Apr 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Mostly dry weather and warming temperatures through the end of
   the week with isolated mountain shower/thunderstorms

 - Next system late weekend into early next week with showers,
   high elevation mountain snow showers, thunderstorms, cooler
   temperatures and breezy winds

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...Today through Friday...
Current GOES-West visible satellite imagery illustrates
mostly sunny and clear skies across interior northern California
on this Wednesday afternoon, with a few cumulus clouds over the
mountains. Temperatures are currently trending approximately 5 to
10 degrees warmer than this time yesterday afternoon, valid at
1230 PM PDT. Mostly dry and warming weather will prevail across
the region today and over the next few days. The upper level
pattern will feature ridging over the Pacific Northwest that will
continue to bring the warm and dry conditions to the forecast area
through the end of the week. Forecast highs will warm to the 70s
to 80s for the Valley and foothills, and upper 50s to 70s in the
mountains. A few stray showers or thunderstorms will be possible
in the mountains south of US Highway 50 on Thursday afternoon, and
again over the Sierra and Coast Range on Friday afternoon (up to
10 to 15 percent).

...Saturday through Tuesday...
Confidence is gradually increasing in a pattern change for later
this weekend through early next week as an upper level trough
develops and moves into California. This pattern change will bring
along the potential for showers, high elevation mountain snow
showers, thunderstorms, cooler temperatures and breezy onshore
winds. Right now, snow levels are favored to be fairly high, above
pass level, and only minor accumulations are forecast for the
high peaks. The National Blend of Models (NBM) currently
advertises a 20 to 30 percent chance of thunderstorms on Saturday
and Sunday, with a 10 to 20 percent chance on Monday and Tuesday
(mainly in the mountains). There is potential for some strong to
severe thunderstorms as well. Be sure to check back frequently
for updates as we get closer and the exact details become more
clear!

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions at TAF sites next 24 hours. Light surface winds
generally 10 kts or less except in the Delta with west-southwest
winds 10 to 15 kts. Isolated light showers may develop over the
Sierra south of Highway 50 after 18Z Thursday.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$