607
FXUS66 KSTO 070846
AFDSTO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1246 AM PST Sat Nov 7 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather, above normal temperatures, and periodically breezy
winds through the weekend and into mid next week
- Potential shift toward active weather pattern late next week.
Low confidence persists in the timing of potential
precipitation
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today-Mid Week:
Warm and dry weather continues as high heights aloft persist over
the next several days. Brief amplifying ridging into today
gradually transitions toward west-southwest flow aloft Sunday into
the early week ahead. With the building ridge today, gusty
downslope northeast to east winds will remain strongest along the
Sierra through the early morning hours, with gusts 25 to 35 mph
through mid morning across the Sierra and adjacent foothills.
Additionally, high temperatures do look to cool a few degrees in
the northern Sacramento Valley, resulting in widespread 60s to 70s
by the afternoon.
Afternoon high temperatures will remain 5-10 degrees above
normal, with widespread Valley and foothills high temperatures in
the low to mid 70s and widespread mountain high temperatures
firmly into the 60s. With the transition toward ridging aloft then
broad west-southwest flow, winds are expected to decrease
throughout the day today, remaining generally light and onshore
driven area wide across the rest of the weekend. While certainty
remains middling, there is some potential that this brief
transition to light onshore winds at the surface will yield
increasing potential for Delta and Valley fog Sunday and Monday
mornings. At this time, probabilities for visibility less than 1
mile sit around 40-60% each morning.
As deep troughing over the Gulf of Alaska begins to drift
southward around the middle of the week, a secondary period of
amplified ridging does look to build into the region late Tuesday-
Wednesday. While notable uncertainty with this troughing feature
persists, this would result in high temperatures briefly returning
closer to 10 degrees above normal Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon
highs in the mid 70s for the Valley and foothills and 60s to low
70s in the mountains. Additionally, this amplified ridging pattern
would bring periods of gusty downslope east- northeast winds to
the Sierra and foothills in the overnight and early morning hours
once again.
Late Next Week:
Ensembles continue to indicate the potential for a shift toward
an active weather pattern, with chances for heavy rain, heavy
mountain snow and breezy winds. However, cluster guidance still
indicates uncertainty regarding the position and timing of the
upcoming trough. The anticipated southward progression of deep
troughing over the Gulf of Alaska toward the California coast
remains the largest piece of uncertainty at this time. With
increasing ensemble consensus for a further southward trajectory
of the initial ejecting shortwave Wednesday-Thursday,
precipitation onset for interior NorCal is now favoring Friday
into next weekend at the earliest. Regardless, the CPC 8-14 Day
Outlook (Nov. 14-20) does continue to highlight a moderate risk
for heavy rain and heavy mountain snow, as well as a slight chance
for high winds which can be anticipated once the pattern does
indeed shift. Be sure to stay up to date with the latest forecast
information and check back for updates as we get closer.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail at TAF sites
over the next 24 hours, although there is increasing potential for
MVFR/IFR cigs in FG/BR at Valley and Delta sites after 09z
Sunday. Winds will be lighter, remaining less than 12 kts at TAF
sites, but still from a generally north to east direction. Breezy
east-northeast winds continue along the Sierra and upper foothills
gusting up to 20-30 kts, slowly decreasing after 12z but
maintaining similar direction.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
