445
FXUS66 KSTO 141913
AFDSTO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1213 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026
For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the
next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing.
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Quick moving system Wednesday-Thursday brings light mountain
rain/snow, followed by gusty north winds in the Valley on
Thursday.
- Dry weather late week into the weekend with near to above
normal temperatures.
- Next weather system brings increasing rain/mountain snow
chances and breezy to gusty winds Sunday into early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
...Today...
As NorCal sits between the departing trough from the weekend and
an approaching trough digging across the Pacific Northwest, a
period of dry weather and breezy southerly winds remains on track
for the remainder of today. Despite mostly sunny skies, high
temperatures look to remain below normal, with upper 60s to low
70s across the Valley and 50s to low 60s at higher elevations. A
slight chance for a light shower or two will be possible this
evening across northern Shasta County with the approaching trough,
but minimal impacts are expected.
...Midweek...
Moving into Wednesday, shower chances are expected to gradually
increase across Shasta County and the surrounding terrain by mid
morning, with rain and light mountain snow showers spreading
toward mountain locations north of Highway 50 throughout the day.
Snow levels look to remain above 6000 feet through Wednesday,
rapidly falling overnight into Thursday morning. Despite this,
most precipitation is anticipated through Wednesday evening. Given
the progressive nature of the system, NBM probabilities of
rainfall greater than 0.25" remain around 30-50%, highest across
the Shasta County terrain. Accumulating snowfall of a dusting to
an inch will generally be confined to locations above 6000 feet.
As dry weather continues at lower elevations through this event,
increasing north to east winds are looking likely as the system
departs on Thursday. Current forecast trends indicate a slight
southward shift in the expected midweek trough, which is expected
to introduce a slight uptick in winds further southward to include
the entire Sacramento Valley and the Delta. Wind gusts 25 to 35
mph are generally expected, although NBM probabilities of gusts up
to 40 mph around 30-50% do exist for locations along and west of
the Interstate 5 corridor and north of Highway 50.
...Late Week into the Weekend...
As the midweek system continues to eject eastward through the end
of the week, breezy north winds are likely to persist on Friday
before trending lighter by the weekend. Dry weather is expected to
persist on Friday and Saturday as a brief period of ridging aloft
builds in over the weekend. This will allow temperatures to
return to near to above normal through the first half of the
weekend with some Minor HeatRisk possible on Saturday from
Sacramento southward. Ensemble guidance does indicate another
deepening trough arriving Sunday into early next week. While
ensemble guidance is in general agreement that this system will
introduce additional periods of active weather, there remain some
notable timing differences on when precipitation impacts are
expected to begin a this time. Regardless, increasing chances for
rain/mountain snow, isolated thunderstorms, and periods of breezy
onshore winds are anticipated by at least early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Surface winds in
the Valley will be breezy out of the west to southwest in the
Sacramento Valley and north to northwest in the northern San
Joaquin Valley until around 06Z Wednesday. Surface winds then
expected below 12kts. There is a 10-20% chance of low clouds
developing in the central/southern Sacramento Valley tomorrow
morning between 14-18Z, however confidence is low.
A weak system will introduce isolated light precipitation over
the northern Sacramento Valley and mountains/foothills after 18Z
Wednesday with a 5-10% chance for isolated mountain thunderstorms
which may lead to periods of MVFR/IFR conditions.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
