979
FXUS66 KSTO 141954
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1254 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026

For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the
next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing.


.KEY MESSAGES...

   - Red Flag Warning in effect from 12 am PDT Thursday - 10 am
     PDT Friday for the Sierra and adjacent foothills.

   - Dry and warm weather with gusty east-northeast Sierra winds
     through the end of the week.

   - Gradual cool down through the weekend with renewed
     precipitation potential early to mid next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...Rest of Today-Friday...
While a dynamic weather pattern aloft will continue evolving
through the end of the week, dry weather is expected to persist
across interior NorCal. The remainder of today will remain cool to
seasonable with clear skies and light winds across the area. As
ridging aloft continues to build inland through the end of today a
shortwave trough is expected to retrograde and deepen toward
SoCal. The placement of the building ridge and deepening trough
will culminate in persistent east- northeast flow aloft, allowing
enhanced downslope easterly winds to develop along the western
Sierra late tonight through Friday morning. With the building
ridge remaining in place into the weekend, temperatures will trend
above normal over the next several days with highest in the 80s
to lower 90s throughout Valley and foothills.

As offshore winds increase as well, daytime humidity values in
the teens to lower 20s (with some single digits possible) are
expected to persist alongside very poor overnight humidity
recovery. Along the Sierra, sustained winds 15-25 mph and gusts
25-45 mph are expected at times from early Thursday morning
through Friday morning with probabilities of wind gusts greater
than 40 mph currently at 40-60%. Strongest winds at this time are
anticipated Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon as an
upper level jet streak briefly enhances winds. Additionally, a
period of gustier northerly winds is on track for portions of the
Sacramento Valley along and west of the Interstate 5 corridor
during the same time frame, with gusts 25-35 mph possible. As a
result, a Red Flag Warning is in effect from 12 am PDT Thursday -
10 am PDT Friday for the Sierra and adjacent foothills, alongside
elevated fire weather conditions for the aforementioned Sacramento
Valley locations.

...Weekend into Next Week...
Heading into the weekend, the ridge axis will begin shifting
eastward as the cutoff low in the SoCal vicinity begins to weaken.
While cooling temperatures are likely to hold off until Sunday as
a result, overall lighter winds are anticipated relative to
Thursday and Friday. Even as lighter offshore winds expected,
temperatures will remain above normal on Saturday with still low
daytime humidity and poor to very poor overnight humidity recovery
remaining likely. By Sunday, a noted pattern shift will begin as
the weakening cutoff low briefly influences the region, leading to
strengthening onshore flow, cooling temperatures, and improving
humidity. There still remains some marked uncertainty though
regarding the evolution of the upper level pattern early next week
as a more prominent longwave trough digs southward from the Gulf
of Alaska. A wide range of impacts is possible across interior
NorCal as this feature develops, although current trends indicate
a continued shift toward a cooler and unsettled weather pattern at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions continue across much of interior NorCal through
the forecast period. Light to breezy north winds less than 12 kts
are generally expected at TAF sites, although winds 10-15 kts
gusting up to 20 kts will be possible at RDD and RBL after 18z
Thursday. Stronger east-northeast winds gusting 30-45 kts along
the Sierra after 06z Thursday and additional gusts 20-35 kts
across Colusa and Yolo counties after 18z Thursday.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM PDT Friday for
Central Motherlode 1000-3000 ft-N. Motherlode 1000-3000 ft-
Sierra (Cal-Tuo) 3000-5000 ft-Sierra (Cal-Tuo) Above 5000 ft-
Sierra (El Dorado-Amador) Above 5000 ft-Sierra (Sierra-Placer)
Above 5000 ft-Sierra (Tehama-Plumas) 1000-3000 ft-Sierra (Tehama-
Plumas) Above 3000 ft-Sierra (Yuba-Placer) 3000-5000 ft-Sierra
3000-5000 ft-Southern Motherlode 1000-3000 ft.

&&

$$