798
FXUS66 KSTO 081917
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1217 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Near-normal high temperatures today; slightly warmer than
   yesterday with continued onshore flow in the evening and
   overnight hours.

 - Near to above-normal temperatures and areas of Moderate
   HeatRisk Thursday-Saturday, with continued onshore flow
   moderating overnight temperatures.

 - Potential for monsoonal moisture to bring showers and
   thunderstorms to the Sierra early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Clear skies are being observed this afternoon across interior
NorCal. Marine intrusion was once again prominent across the Delta
and Sacramento county areas this morning and has quickly lifted
out of the area as the sun rose. Overall, mostly pleasant
temperatures are being observed at the time of this discussion,
with low 70s to low 80s across the region.

Zonal heights aloft with broad ridging to the south will allow for
slightly higher temperatures compared to yesterday. Weak troughing
to the north of the CWA may introduce some very slight chances of
showers near Mount Shasta today, but activity is expected to
remain out of our area of responsibility. Ridging is expected to
move east and into the desert southwest through the remainder of
the week. Pattern will result in slightly weaker onshore flow,
allowing for daytime high temperatures to climb to more seasonable
like / slightly warmer beginning tomorrow and continuing into
next week.

Confidence is increasing in monsoonal moisture moving into the
area early next week as high pressure is near the Four Corners
region. Latest forecast package has increased the chances of
mountain thunderstorms beginning Monday afternoon through at
least Wednesday. What remains unclear is exactly how far west and
north the monsoonal moisture surge will be, along with sufficient
instability aloft. EC ensemble members for CAPE (Most Unstable
Parcel) show messy solutions depicting where instability may be
early next week. EFI reveals Shift of Tails for QPF nosing into
portions of the Valley, foothills, and mountains south of I-80,
and overall pattern recognition are at least boosting confidence
slightly in some t-storm development. We expect confidence and
what potential threats the area may see to increase in the coming
days as solutions become more clear.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions prevail over interior NorCal the next 24 hours.
Surface winds below 15 kts from the south, except in the northern
San Joaquin Valley where north winds below 15 kts will persist. A
small chance (less than 10%) locally low ceilings in the
Sacramento County area tomorrow morning, where MVFR/IFR
conditions may develop from marine layer intrusion.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$