990
FXUS66 KSTO 042022
AFDSTO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1222 PM PST Wed Nov 4 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather, above normal temperatures, and periodically breezy
north to east winds through the weekend and into next week
- Slight chance for light rain showers in Shasta County Sunday
into next week
- Potential shift toward active weather pattern mid to late next
week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today-Saturday:
High pressure over the region is promoting dry weather and
seasonably high temperatures across interior Northern California
today. Despite some high level clouds streaming around the
northern periphery of the ridge, mostly sunny skies are observed.
Afternoon temperatures have been running generally 5 to 15 degrees
warmer compared with yesterday`s reading, with highs in the upper
50s to 60s across the Valleys and Foothills, and mid 40s to 50s
over the mountains. A period of breezy north winds is expected
through the Valley/Delta this afternoon and Thursday afternoon,
with the breezier conditions west of Interstate 5 where gusts from
15-25 mph are expected, transitioning to breezy downslope
easterlies along the Sierra overnight into Thursday. Tonight into
Thursday, low clouds and patchy fog/mist is expected to
redeveloped along the eastern side of the Valley.
The ridge will amplify across the region through the end of the
week. A drying and warming trend is expected through the weekend,
with near to above normal temperatures. Resultant high temperatures
into the 70s are anticipated across the Valley/foothills and 60s
throughout the mountains. Periods of breezy north winds will
continue through the Valleys each afternoon, with locally breezy
northeasterly/downslope winds develop each overnight through mid
morning period in the mountains and foothills as well, especially
for the typical wind- prone locations and northeast/east to
southwest/west aligned drainages. For these areas, strongest winds
gusting 25-35 mph are expected late Friday into Saturday.
Sunday-Next Week:
As the ridge axis shifts eastward a broad area of west-southwest
flow aloft looks to build in Sunday into next week alongside
persistently high heights aloft. This will usher in a gradual
return toward light onshore flow, although high temperatures do
look to remain near to above normal into the early week ahead.
While available moisture early in the week will limit overall
precipitation potential, any ejecting shortwaves will introduce at
least light shower chances for portions of Shasta County to begin
the week.
Ensemble guidance still generally indicates potential for a shift
toward an active weather pattern, including chances for heavy
rain and heavy mountain snow, around the mid to late next week
period. A high degree of uncertainty still accompanies the
forecast relative to this potential shift though. The anticipated
southward progression of deep troughing over the Gulf of Alaska
toward the California coast remains the largest piece of
uncertainty at this time. Persistent ridging and high heights
aloft across much of interior California have so far staved off
this robust system. Given the deep fetch of available moisture
offshore and general ensemble trends for the aforementioned trough
to break through and dig southward by mid next week, the WPC 8-14
day outlook (Nov. 10-16) continues to highlight a moderate risk
for heavy rain and heavy mountain snow, and a slight chance for
high winds. Be sure to stay up to date with the latest forecast
information and check back for updates as we get closer.
&&
.AVIATION...
Sites have cleared this morning, returning to general VFR
conditions after 18z. Breezy north winds 8-12 kts are expected to
continue at TAF sites through 00z Thursday before light winds
return. As winds weaken after 00z Thursday, another period of
MVFR/IFR conditions in BR/FG will be possible throughout the
Valley into Thursday morning as well with best chances after 12z
Thursday.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
