524
FXUS66 KSTO 141936
AFDSTO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1236 PM PDT Thu May 14 2026
For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the
next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing.
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Critical fire weather concerns for the Valley & Delta this
weekend-Monday, with gusty north winds and low humidity.
- Gusty north to east winds Saturday into Monday, peaking on
Sunday. Strongest winds along and west of the I-5 corridor,
over mountains and through canyons.
- Above-normal temperatures continue through the forecast period.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
....Today-Friday...
Warmer weather is expected today compared to yesterday as weak
riding sets up over the area, with temperatures trending 5 to 15
degrees above normal resulting in widespread Minor HeatRisk into
the weekend. The Delta Breeze will bring mild relief this
afternoon and evening with gusts 15-20 mph through the Delta and
into West Sacramento. On Friday, breezy north winds develop
through the Sacramento Valley gusting 25 to 35 mph along the I-5
corridor.
...Saturday through Monday...
Confidence is high for an inside-slider trough to dig down into
the Great Basin early next week. The latest NBM has shown winds
trending slightly higher Sunday and Monday, with continued breezy
winds on Saturday albeit weaker compared to Sunday-Monday. Current
forecast have north winds gusts of 30 to 45 MPH, strongest on
Sunday and Monday and along Interstate 5 and in the vicinity Delta
where winds could exceed 45 mph.
The gusty north winds combined with forecast daytime humidities
9-15%, will result in critical fire weather conditions across
portions of the Valley and Delta. As a result, a Fire Weather
Watch is in effect from 5 AM Saturday to 8 PM Monday for the
Valley and Delta. Overnight recoveries will also be poor with max
RHs between 30-55%. As mentioned previously, the strongest winds
will be focused along the I-5 corridor and Delta, however winds
will still be gusty east of I-5 in the Valley. North winds begin
to trend weaker on Monday compared to Sunday, but the subsequent
drying and continued low daytime humidities will still result in
continued fire weather concerns through Monday.
Saturday`s Chances for Wind Gusts > 40 MPH: 20-50%
Sunday`s Chances for Wind Gusts > 40 MPH: 65-95%
Monday`s Chances for Wind Gusts > 40 MPH: 10-35%
Downsloping winds will similarly be gusty through gaps and
canyons in the Sierra, especially through Jarbo Gap. Daytime
relative humidity values in the mountains and foothills are also
expected to be in the mid teens to low 30s during this time.
...Tuesday-Wednesday...
Riding begins to set up aloft Tuesday onward resulting in
gradually warming temperatures through midweek. Areas of Moderate
HeatRisk develop in the foothills, with widespread Minor HeatRisk
in the Valley and mountains. Daytime relative humidities will
continue to be in the teens to low 20s across the area. Winds are
expected to return to a summertime diurnal flow pattern, with
onshore winds during the day and offshore winds overnight.
Please continue to practice fire safety and monitor your latest
forecast to stay up to date at weather.gov/sacramento
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. North winds
continue over the northern Sacramento Valley until around 21z
Thursday then weakening with continued west-northwest winds
through the Delta and northern San Joaquin Valley through 18z
Friday, strongest 21z to 03z Friday. West winds over the Sierra
until 03z Friday, weakening and turning to the east overnight.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from late Friday night through Monday evening
for Butte County Below 1000 ft-C. San Joaquin County including
Stockton-C. Solano County including Fairfield-C. Stanislaus
County including Modesto-C. Yolo/NE Solano including Woodland-
Central Colusa County Incl. I-5-Central Glenn Co & Interstate 5-
Eastern Colusa County-Eastern Glenn County-N. Sac Valley in
Tehama County-NE San Joaquin Valley Below 1000 ft-SW Solano
County including Vallejo-Sac Metro/W. El Dorado/Amador County-
Sacramento County Delta-San Joaquin County Delta-Shasta Metro-
Sutter/Yuba counties below 1000 ft-Tracy Triangle Below 1000 ft-
W. Stanislaus County Above 1000 ft & I-5-W. Yolo County
including Capay/I-505.
&&
$$
