528
FXUS66 KSTO 030811
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1211 AM PST Tue Nov 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Quick moving system brings showers/isolated thunderstorm
   chances, breezy southerly winds and light mountain snow
   showers today

 - Drying and warming trend Wednesday through the weekend, with
   periods of breezy north to east winds

 - Potential for a return to active weather next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today:
Current GOES-West satellite imagery shows mid to high clouds
continuing to spread inland across interior northern California
associated with a quick moving system that will move through the
region today. The latest precipitation forecast has trended a
little higher with forecast amounts ranging from a few hundredths
up to 0.35". Highest precipitation amounts favor higher terrain
especially the Coast Range. Snowfall amounts of 1-2" are still
expected over the northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascade
peaks, generally above 6500 feet. Breezy southerly winds will also
accompany this system, especially over the Sierra Crest with gusts
of 20-35+ mph today. The better instability is favored west of our
forecast area and the National Blend of Models (NBM) holds up to a
10% chance of isolated thunderstorms for our area. High resolution
guidance illustrates the main timeframe for the precipitation to
start moving through the forecast area to be after 0800 this
morning. Precipitation then looks to taper off later this
evening/night. Motorists should plan ahead for slick road
conditions through the day today.

Wednesday-Weekend:
High pressure builds back in bringing warmer and drier weather to
the region through the end of the week and over the weekend. On
Wednesday a period of breezy north to east winds will develop
behind the passage of the weather system. Strongest northerly
winds are currently favored along and west of Interstate 5 on
Wednesday. Locally breezy northeasterly/downslope winds develop
each overnight through mid morning period in the mountains and
foothills, especially for the typical wind-prone locations and
northeast/east to southwest/west aligned drainages. For these
areas, strongest winds are expected late Friday into Saturday.
Temperatures will warm from near normal to above normal for early
November climatology toward the end of the week. By next week
ensemble guidance is indicating the potential for a return to
active weather, however confidence is low on any details. Be sure
to stay up to date with the latest forecast information and check
back for updates as we get closer.

&&

.AVIATION...
General VFR conditions at TAF sites over the next 24 hours,
however localized MVFR visibility from rain showers are possible
at times from 18Z-04Z today. Ceilings lower after 16Z to around
3500-5000 ft but are expected to stay above MVFR at TAF sites.
Winds generally southerly and less than 12 kts sustained across
the Valley. Gusts up to 35 kts over higher elevations in the
mountains through 00z Wednesday.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$