723
FXUS66 KSTO 021958
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1158 AM PST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Drier and near seasonal normal temperatures today

 - Quick moving system brings shower/isolated thunderstorm chances
   and breezy winds Tuesday

 - Drying and warming trend Wednesday through the weekend, with
   near to slightly above normal heading toward the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today:

High pressure has begun to shift eastward today, promoting dry and
near seasonal normals temperatures. Partly to mostly cloudy skies
are observed across the area as high-level clouds stream around
the northern periphery of the ridge. Afternoon temperatures are
forecast to be in the 60s for the Valleys, mid-50s to mid-60s for
the foothills and mid-40s to mid-60s for the mountains.

Tonight-Tuesday:

A deepening upper-level trough and associated cold front will
approach the region tonight into Tuesday. A frontal boundary will
bring breezy southerly winds late tonight through Tuesday. Gusts
around 20 to 35 mph are likely, with the strongest winds along the
Sierra. Locally strongest winds up to 45 mph are possible over
the higher terrain.

A quick progressive cold front will bring rain and high elevation
snow (above 6500 feet) showers on Tuesday. Expect light to
locally moderate rain showers with this system. Rainfall total
amounts range from a few hundredths to a quarter of an inch, with
locally higher amounts in the Coast Range. Snow level will remain
generally above 6,500 feet, but with light moisture moving across
the area. That said, up to 2 inches of snowfall is expected for
the Northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades, including Lassen
National Park. There remains a 10% or less chance of
thunderstorm.

Lingering showers are expected to dissipate Tuesday night as high
pressure build rapidly into the region in the wake of the trough.
With clearing skies, areas of valley fog are expected to develop
into Wednesday.

Wednesday-Weekend:

A period of north to east winds is expected to develop on
Wednesday, with the breezier north winds through the Valley/Delta
west of Interstate 5 in the afternoon transitioning to breezy
downslope easterlies along the Sierra overnight into Thursday. A
weak shortwave is expected to traverse the area Wednesday night
into Thursday, but mostly dry weather and seasonable high
temperatures is expected.

Ensemble guidance suggest drier and warmer weather conditions
across northern interior California late this week and through
the weekend as the 500 mb ridge build across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail at TAF sites
through the next 24 hours; however, ceilings will begin lowering
around 14z Tuesday, reaching as low as 3,500 ft by 21z Tuesday.
Ceilings should remain above MVFR criteria though. Winds generally
southerly and less than 12 kts across the Valley TAF sites. Gusts
up to 35 kts over higher elevations in the mountains from 06z
Tuesday to 00z Wednesday.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$