804
FXUS66 KSTO 021811
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1111 AM PDT Thu Jul 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Cooler temperatures today with light onshore winds

 - Warmer and more seasonable temperatures tomorrow through July
   4th, followed by a gradual cooling trend.

 - Slight chance (5-10%) for isolated mountain thunderstorms
   along the Sierra early to mid next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Mostly clear skies across NorCal this morning, with a line of thin
high clouds rolling through portions of the central and southern
Sacramento Valley. Weak troughing aloft is help temperatures
remain near to slightly below normal today across the region.
Light onshore flow will continue, leading to overall light to
breezy wind conditions the rest of the day.

On Friday, longwave troughing will begin to breakdown which will
allow for slight increases in high temperatures through July 4th.
Independence Day will see high temperatures in the low to mid 90s
across most of the Valley, except for the northern Sacramento
Valley where 100-103 high temps are forecast. Widespread Minor
HeatRisk is expected, except isolated areas of Moderate HeatRisk
in cities such as Redding and Redbluff due to the warmer afternoon
highs. Regardless, if you are spending the Holiday Weekend outside
make sure to drink plenty of water, wear sunscreen, if you are on
local waterways always wear a life jacket! July 4th`s evening
should see temperatures cool into the lower 80s for most of the
Valley, except northern Sacramento Valley locations where lower
90s are expected by 9PM PDT. Delta Breeze influenced areas are
forecast to see temperatures cool into the upper 60s low 70s by
9PM. Overall, pleasant/near-normal conditions are expected for
the July 4th Holiday.

By early next week, upper level low in the Gulf Alaska will eject
a longwave trough which will influence our weather pattern.
Slightly cooler than normal high temperatures, light to locally
breezy winds, and Minor HeatRisk will return to the region. Some
uncertainty exists on where/how strong longwave trough will be,
but NBM has introduced some slight (5-15%) chances of an afternoon
t-storm mainly along the Sierra crest and areas east Sunday
through Tuesday. A quick look at Clusters shows perhaps by late
next week, upper level ridging begins to develop in the desert
southwest. Current forecast for Thursday (Jul 9) shows slight
increases in high temperatures, but still hovering near-normal at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Southwest to
west wind gusts 15 to 25 kts in the Delta and over the Sierra
Crest. South to southwest winds in the Sacramento Valley
(northwest in the northern SJ Valley) with gusts 10 to 20 kts from
21Z-06Z then lowering to less than 12 kts.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$