653
FXUS66 KSTO 202150
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
150 PM PST Thu Nov 20 2025


.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Lingering rain and snow showers this evening through Friday
   morning. Potential for fog south of I-80 mainly in the northern
   San Joaquin Valley.

 - Drier weather returns this weekend into early next week, with
   light offshore winds.

 - Dry weather and slightly above normal temperatures favored for
   Thanksgiving Day

.DISCUSSION...

...Today-Friday...
Cloudy skies prevail overhead this afternoon as a weather system
begins to exit the region. Lingering isolated rain showers in the
Valley & foothills as well as snow showers over the Sierra will
continue through this evening before gradually diminishing early
Friday morning. Fog and low stratus development is possible
tomorrow morning, with the HREF showing a 30 to 50% chance of
less than 0.5 mile visibility along the eastern portion of the
Valley south of I-80. Coverage will be limited to the eastern
Valley as a result of offshore winds that are expected to develop
later this evening, continuing through Friday. North winds
are expected through the Valley and downsloping northeast to east
winds over the Sierra. Forecast gusts are between 15 to 25 mph
along the western Sacramento Valley, with gusts 25 to 45 mph over
the Sierra and higher elevation foothills.


...Saturday and Onward...
Dry weather returns this weekend and through next week as weak
ridging builds over the Pacific northwest. Temperatures will be in
the 60s within the valley and the 50s in the mountains for
daytime highs. Mostly sunny skies and lighter north winds are
expected through the weekend and into mid next week. Dry weather
looks to continue for Thanksgiving Day, with slightly above normal
temperatures and light winds.

Clusters and ensembles continue to hint at the ridge breaking
down late next week with the introduction of a low pressure system
off of the CA coast. Confidence remains low on timing, impacts,
and development of the low pressure system at this time.


.AVIATION...
Conditions improve to general VFR at TAF sites after 00Z Friday
as a weather system exits the region and precipitation gradually
tapers off. Patchy MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions possible between
11Z-17Z Friday in portions of the southern Sacramento and northern
San Joaquin valleys. Winds generally less than 12kts through 03Z
Friday, then winds increase out of the north in the Valley/Delta
with gusts of 15 to 25 kts, and out of the northeast to east in
the foothills/mountains with gusts of 20 to 40 kts.


&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$