756
FXUS66 KSTO 191951
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1251 PM PDT Wed Aug 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Elevated Fire Weather Conditions Friday through Saturday
    within the Burney Basin/NE Foothills due to low RH and breezy
    westerly winds.

  - Dry and with seasonable high temperatures through the week
    and into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Mostly clear skies prevail across interior NorCal this afternoon
with high temperatures beginning to climb into the low to mid 80s.
Upper level high pressure has retrograded slightly this afternoon,
which will help high temperatures climb slightly higher compared
to yesterday. Even with the slightly higher temperatures, we
will remain very seasonable across interior NorCal. Mostly Minor
HeatRisk, with areas of Moderate will prevail today. By tomorrow,
EPAC low will translate eastward, weakening the high pressure
influence over our area which will allow high temperatures to
begin a gradual cooling trend. High temperatures will fall into
the low-mid 90s in the central Valley; upper 90s in the northern
Sac Valley, Thursday and into early next week. Onshore flow will
keep HeatRisk mainly Minor during the "cooling" trend. Highs will
remain around 1-4 degrees cooler than normal for this time of
year.

By Friday and into the weekend, EPAC low will eject a shortwave
trough into the PACNW. Ensembles are still fuzzy on if enough
moisture will make it into the area, particularly in the northern
Sac Valley, Coastal Range, Shasta mountains, but some CAMS are
beginning to pick up on potential for some isolated sprinkles.
Instability aloft looks to remain minimal at this time, but will
bear monitoring for elevated t-storm chances. A weak monsoonal
moisture push will also occur in the Sierra south of HWY-50 this
weekend, but NBM probabilities are very low of any convection
forming west of the Sierra crest at this time.

Elevated fire weather conditions will also develop Friday and
Saturday in the Burney Basin and NE Foothills in response to the
aforementioned shortwave trough moving through the PacNW. Recent
forecast runs have weakened the wind gust potential for Friday,
with gusts around 20-30 mph and daytime humidity values in the
mid-20s. Saturday now looks to have the best potential for
westerly(downslope in Burney Basin) wind gusts of 25-35 mph and
humidity values in the upper teens to low 20s in the Burney Basin.
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions continue across interior NorCal next 24 hours.
Breezy onshore winds in Delta and vicinity this evening, with
occasional surface gusts up to 20 kts. Elsewhere in the Valley,
surface winds 12 kts or below next 24 hours. Higher elevations
with surface gusts up to 20 kts.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$