967
FXUS66 KSTO 251934
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1234 PM PDT Sun Oct 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Chance for light showers over the Coast Range and northern
   mountains on Monday; dry weather elsewhere through Thursday

 - Breezy to gusty onshore winds tonight-Monday, strongest over
   the higher elevations of the southern Cascades and northern
   Sierra

 - Confidence increasing in unsettled weather Friday into the
   weekend with renewed precipitation chances, cooler
   temperatures and breezy winds

.DISCUSSION...

...Today through Thursday Morning...
Current GOES-west visible satellite imagery illustrates mostly
sunny skies with few to scattered mid to high level clouds slowly
drifting over northern California on this Sunday afternoon.
Surface observations show current temperatures generally in the
60s in the Valley, 50s and 60s in the foothills and 40s to 50s in
the mountains. The upper level pattern features an upper low
moving into the Pacific Northwest. As this system clips northern
California, increased southwesterly winds are expected, especially
over the Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades. Wind gusts of 30 to
50 mph are forecast for the highest elevations tonight through
Monday. Additionally, there is a slight chance of some light
showers over the Coast Range and northern mountains from this weak
system later tonight through mid-day Monday.

Dry weather is expected elsewhere for much of the week ahead.
Continued influence of Pacific NW troughing will keep temperatures
below normal for late October climatology through the week. Due
to recent rains, cool temperatures and light surface winds, patchy
fog or haze will be possible each morning in the Valley over the
next several days. Cold overnight temperatures will continue for
the mountains and basins where morning lows are forecast to be
near to below freezing over the next several nights.

...Late Thursday through Next Weekend...
Confidence continues to increase in a pattern change to unsettled
weather late this week into next weekend. Renewed precipitation
chances across the area are likely with the latest probabilities
from the National Blend of Models (NBM) suggesting a 40 to 70
percent chance of at least a tenth of an inch of rain from Friday-
Saturday. There is also a 35 to 55 percent chance of 4 inches of
mountain snow with the best chances above 6000 ft. Precipitation
chances are favoring higher terrain and areas south of Interstate
80. We will also have to keep an eye on the thunderstorm potential
as details become more clear in the coming days. Ensemble
guidance is hinting at the potential for unsettled weather to
continue into the first week of November as well, however there is
more uncertainty beyond days 6-7. Be sure to check back for
updates and plan ahead for unsettled weather!

&&

.AVIATION...
Predominantly VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.
Potential for isolated FG/BR in the Valley from 11Z-18Z Monday.
Increasing mid to high level clouds through tonight. Winds
generally less than 12 kts through 04z Monday, with increasing
south to southwest winds in the Delta, southern Sacramento Valley,
and over the Sierra (highest gusts over the crest) with gusts up
to 20 kts in the Delta and eastern half of the Sacramento Valley,
and up to 40 kts at higher elevations in the mountains.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$