127
FXUS66 KSTO 161841
AFDSTO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1141 AM PDT Fri Oct 16 2026
For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the
next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing.
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Red Flag Warning was allowed to expire at 10 AM this
morning, as the strongest winds have passed. Locally gusty
east winds still possible, along with very low humidity
values.
- Elevated Fire Weather Conditions continue in the Sierra and
adjacent foothills, portions of the Sacramento Valley through
Saturday.
- Dry and warm weather with gusty east-northeast Sierra winds
through the end of the week.
- Gradual cool down begins this weekend with renewed
precipitation chances early to mid next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
...Rest of Today...
Mostly clear skies observed across interior NorCal on this Friday
morning. Light winds in the Valley and clear skies helping
temperatures begin to climb into the mid 70s to low 80s. Humidity
values already reading in the single digits at several locations
in the foothills/mountains, with low teens to mid 20s in the
Valley. North winds will continue across the Valley, with some
gusts up to 20 to 30 mph, and the very dry conditions we are
observing will continue to allow elevated fire weather conditions
to persist today and Saturday across the Valley, especially along
and west of the I-5 corridor. Elevated fire weather conditions
will also continue in the mountains and foothills, aided by the
very poor overnight recoveries and downslope (east) wind gusts.
High pressure to the north will continue to translate eastward
through the rest of the day, which will eventually allow for
gradually weakening winds as we move into the evening and
overnight hours.
...Saturday and Sunday...
Ridge moves further east, low pressure in SoCal will start to
influence the weather across our area. First sensible impacts will
be slightly cooler high temperatures and weaker winds, though dry
conditions will continue to linger around with only slightly
improved daytime humidity values. NorCal will see better relief
from the heat and poor RH values Sunday as SoCal low pressure
weakens, and a PacNW trough begins to dig south. High temperatures
will fall into the low 80s on Sunday as onshore flow will return
to the area.
...Early Next Week - Mid Week...
Ensembles have come into better agreement lately with a closed low
forming off the coast by Monday/Tuesday. Resultant high
temperatures will plummet into upper 60s to mid 70s across
interior NorCal, with northern Sacramento Valley locations
possibly not breaking the 70 degree mark on Monday. Precipitation
chances will enter the forecast on Tuesday; however how much rain
Valley sites will receive depends on track and available moisture.
NBM keeps light shower chances in the forecast Tuesday through
Thursday with best chances in the Delta, foothills, and mountains
at this time. Latest runs have also kept snow in the forecast,
with slight changes to location of the "heavier" snow totals.
South of HWY-50 stands the best chances for snow totals greater
than 4 inches at this time and at mostly peaks, as snow levels are
currently forecast to be generally above 8000 feet. We can again
say a pattern change is on the horizon, however precipitation
totals and any convection still remain uncertain.
&&
.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions across interior NorCal next 24 hours. Valley
TAF sites will see surface wind gusts generally below 12 knots.
Mountain sites will see easing wind gusts through roughly 01z
Saturday with gusts up to 12 knots, then a short-duration
increase with surface wind gusts up to 20 knots from 02z through
08z Saturday.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
