223
FXUS66 KSTO 282037
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1237 PM PST Sat Feb 28 2026


.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Showers and thunderstorms mainly over the northern Sacramento
   Valley, foothills and mountains this weekend into Monday,
   otherwise dry weather prevails

 - Warming conditions over the next week with above normal
   temperatures

 - Light showers over the northern Sacramento Valley, foothills
   and mountains on Wednesday, followed by breezy north to east
   winds Thursday-Friday

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...Today-Sunday...
Ensemble guidance indicates an upper level low that will move
through California this weekend into early next week. This will
bring showers and thunderstorms to the area with best chances over
the northern/central Sacramento Valley and in the foothills and
mountains. The National Blend of Models (NBM) shows a 20-40%
chance of thunderstorms today and a 20-30% chance on Sunday, with
the best potential between 1 PM and 9 PM and possibly into the
early morning hours. Severe hail up to an inch will be possible
with the strongest storms along with frequent lightning, heavy
rainfall, and chances for funnel clouds and/or a weak tornado.
Additionally, the CAMs have continued to depict a Shasta County
Convergence Zone signature on Sunday that may result in higher
rainfall rates and potential flooding in urban/low-lying areas
over Shasta and Tehama counties.

Very light high elevation mountain snow is possible above 6000
feet late Sunday into Monday, with amounts generally less than 2
inches at the highest peaks.

Warmer than average temperatures are favored to continue during
this period as well.

...Monday-Tuesday...
Lingering showers are expected over the Sierra through Monday,
otherwise dry weather is anticipated as ridging builds back into
the region briefly.

...Mid to Late Week...
A trough moving into the Pacific Northwest clips the area by mid-
week, bringing some light showers to the northern Sacramento
Valley, foothills and mountains north of Highway 50 on Wednesday.
Dry conditions return on Thursday, with breezy north to east
winds developing behind the system. NBM probabilities of wind
gusts greater than 30 mph sit around 50-80% for Thursday and
Friday, with the highest chances along and west of I-5 and
mountains.

Additionally as ridging builds, temperatures will continue to warm
through the end of the week into the mid to upper 70s through the
Valley.

&&


.AVIATION...
Chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms over the northern
Sacramento Valley (RDD and RBL), foothills and mountains through
Sunday evening, bringing areas of MVFR conditions and local
IFR/LIFR. Patchy MVFR conditions from mist impacting the northern
San Joaquin Valley (SCK and MOD) from 12z-15z Sunday. Surface
winds generally less than 12 kts next 24 hours, except for erratic
winds near thunderstorms.


&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$