793
FXUS66 KSTO 271948
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1248 PM PDT Mon Jul 27 2026


.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Elevated fire weather conditions today in the Burney Basin and
   parts of the northeast foothills due to low RH and breezy
   conditions.

 - Widespread Moderate HeatRisk Friday through the weekend for
   the Valley and Foothills.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Current conditions across the area have clear skies and warming
temperatures into the 90s today. Warmest conditions in the
northern Sacramento Valley. Dry conditions are expected today,
with breezy west to southwesterly winds at times in the Sacramento
region and parts of the northeastern foothills into the Burney
Basin. Lowest relative humidity values are within the northeastern
foothills and into the Burney Basin. This has prompted elevated
fire weather concerns for the northeastern foothills into the
Burney Basin through this evening. Winds will be lighter Tuesday
and Wednesday across the area, but the heat and dry conditions
remain.

The synoptic ridge supplying the dry and hot temperatures across
central CONUS will continue to build back toward the west through
the end of the week and into the weekend. This will help increase
our temperatures and drop our RH values. Confidence continues to
increase for widespread Moderate HeatRisk Friday through the
weekend for the Valley and Foothills. Temperatures will be in the
100-110 range, with the warmest in the northern Sacramento
Valley. There is increasing chances for a heat related product
end of the week and into the weekend for parts of the Valley and
Foothills. We will continue to assess conditions and latest
guidance for any potential product. Relative humidity values
during this time will be on the low end, with potential to see
single digit values into portions of the area. We will monitor and
reassess the need for any fire weather headline during the peak
of the heat/dry conditions this weekend.

Looking beyond the weekend into next week, confidence begins to
dwindle for continued heat concerns as models are diverging on the
pattern aloft. If the pattern where to break down, conditions
would start to cool off to more seasonable temperatures. If the
pattern remains with a ridge building across the area, the heat
would continue. Plan ahead if your headed out this weekend and
bring along extra hydration.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. Winds will be
around 5-10kts through the afternoon and evening hours going light
during the overnight. Can`t rule out a few gusts up to 20kts near
the Sacramento sites this afternoon and evening.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$