471
FXUS66 KSTO 051951
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1151 AM PST Thu Nov 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Dry weather, above normal temperatures, and periodically breezy
   winds through the weekend and into next week

 - Slight chance for light rain showers in Shasta County Sunday
   into next week

 - Potential shift toward active weather pattern mid to late next
   week

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today-Saturday:

A period of northwesterly flow aloft continues into today in the
wake of downstream troughing with a brief period of ridging aloft
the building in friday into the early weekend ahead. The
resulting appreciable weather at the surface will remain
seasonable to warm with periodically breezy north to east winds
Today into Saturday AM. Strongest north winds gusting 15 to 25 mph
are still anticipated along and west of the Interstate 5 corridor
this afternoon with additional northerly gusts up to 15 mph
across a similar area Friday afternoon. Downslope east-northeast
winds along the Sierra will follow similar diurnal trends with
strongest gusts 25 to 35 mph during the overnight and early
morning hours through Saturday AM.

High temperatures begin to reach the lower 70s for much of the
Valley with 50s to 60s elsewhere in the mountains this afternoon.
As ridging aloft amplifies across Interior NorCal alongside
reinforcing surface high pressure Friday afternoon into Saturday,
high temperatures look to trend a bit warmer then early November
normals with widespread Valley and foothills high temperatures in
the low to mid 70s and widespread mountain high temperatures
firmly into the 60s. With the transition from northwesterly flow
aloft to ridging aloft, winds are expected to decrease throughout
the day on Saturday, remaining generally light area wide across
the rest of the weekend.

Sunday-Next Week:

As the ridge axis shifts eastward a broad area of west-stouhwest
flow and weak troughing aloft looks to build in Sunday into next
week. Despite this upper level shift, high heights aloft look to
persist at least into the middle of next week. This flow pattern
should usher in a gradual return toward light onshore flow
alongside continued warmer than normal high temperatures. While
available moisture early to mid next week will limit overall
precipitation potential area wide, any ejecting shortwaves have
the potential to introduce at least light shower chances for
portions of Shasta County into next week.

Ensemble guidance still generally indicates potential for a shift
toward an active weather pattern, including chances for heavy
rain and heavy mountain snow, around the mid to late next week
period, although recent trends are beginning to favor the late
week solution. A high degree of uncertainty still accompanies the
forecast relative to this potential shift. The anticipated
southward progression of deep troughing over the Gulf of Alaska
toward the California coast remains the largest piece of
uncertainty at this time. Persistent ridging and high heights
aloft across much of interior California have so far staved off
this robust system. Given the deep fetch of available moisture
offshore and general ensemble trends for the aforementioned trough
to break through and dig southward at some point next week, the
CPC 8-14 Day Outlook (Nov. 12-18) continues to highlight a
moderate risk for heavy rain and heavy mountain snow, as well as a
slight chance for high winds. Be sure to stay up to date with the
latest forecast information and check back for updates as we get
closer.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions prevail this afternoon and will continue to do so
through the early evening. North winds will continue to gust 15 to
25 kts until 00Z Friday, especially in the northern Sacramento
Valley. As winds weaken after 00z Friday, another period of
MVFR/IFR conditions in BR/FG will be possible throughout the
Valley into Friday morning with best chances after 10z Friday and
generally west of Interstate 5.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$