706
FXUS66 KSTO 231948
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1148 AM PST Mon Feb 23 2026

For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the
next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing.


..KEY MESSAGES...

 - A warm storm system will bring rain starting tonight which will
   continue through Wednesday morning. Snow levels are very high
   with this system and snow impacts will be minimal. Rain impacts
   also expected to be minor.

 - Dry and warming conditions likely by Thursday continuing
   through the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...Tonight - Wednesday Morning...
Interesting weather system to impact the area later tonight
through Wednesday morning. 500 mb pattern has anomalously high
heights with a strong west/southwest flow across NorCal. A
moisture plume in that flow will bring PW values up to around
300% for this time of the year. All this moisture won`t be
accompained by much of synoptic forcing, rather upslope into the
foothills and mountains will force out the moisture. This will
result in a big range from rain values from the valley floor into
the Sierra. Main moisture plume also pointed at northern area.
Storm total probabilities (48 hours) are highest in higher terrain
of Butte and Yuba counties where there is about a 50% chance of 3
inches. Chances of 2" of rain more broad again mainly in the
higher terrain from I-80 northward to northern Shasta county
around the horn into Coastals. In the valley around an inch of
rain looks like a good bet with probabilities starting around 70%
in Glen County northward. As far as impacts, they should be on the
low end even with some rain on snow in lower elevations.
Instability is very limimted and not expecting any stronger
localized convecction rather a continuous mainly light sometimes
moderate rain.

...Thursday - Saturday...
The ridget that is currently over head looks to amplify and
retrograde a bit to our west placing us in dry with above normal
temperatures with widespread temperaturs in the 70s by Thursday
through the weekend.

&&
.AVIATION...
General VFR conditions outside of MVFR ceilings at
RDD/RBL this afternoon ahead of a weather system bringing VFR to
MVFR conditions to the area from 04z Tuesday through 18z Tuesday.
-SHRA/RA at RDD and RBL from 04z to 12z Tuesday before -RA spreads
throughout the area after 12z and continues through the TAF
period. Breezy southerly winds at RDD/RBl with gusts up to 25 kts
after 12z Tuesday and gusts 15 to 25 kts developing elsewhere
after 15z, up to 30 kts at times near the northeastern foothills.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$