514
FXUS66 KSTO 152048
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1248 PM PST Sun Feb 15 2026

For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the
next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing.

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Widespread rain, gusty winds, isolated thunderstorms, and
    substantial mountain snow this evening through mid week with
    Major mountain travel impacts and snow levels in the
    foothills.

  - Potential for active weather to continue late next week into
    the following weekend.
&&

.DISCUSSION...

...Today and Tonight...

Showers continue over the west side of the Valley this afternoon
with incremental waves pushing further east this evening as our
weather systems moves inland. We can expect Valley accumulations
of 0.50-1.00" with 1-2" over the mountains and higher elevations
of the northern Sac. Valley. Snow levels will be 5000-6000 feet
for much of today but won`t see any significant snow
accumulations until later tonight into next week as the wave
reaches the mountains. Forecast show a 10-20% chance of
thunderstorms with best chances over the Delta to the northeastern
foothills. This morning`s EC run highlighted the Delta as areas
to watch but overall should be a low threat for this afternoon and
evening. Today will be mainly minor impacts as we head into the
moderate to major travel impacts of this system later this week.

...Next Week...

A low pressure system moves onshore to CA this evening through
mid week bringing widespread rain, isolated thunderstorms, gusty
winds, and heavy snow. Heaviest precipitation moves onshore and
into the forecast area tonight and then continues through Tuesday-
Wednesday. Snow levels will be around 4500-5500 feet tonight
through Monday. 2500 to 3500 feet snow levels by Monday night and
1500 to 2500 feet Tuesday into Wednesday. There is some
uncertainty with the timing of the cold push of temperatures which
will affect snow level exact timing. There exists a scenario (30
percent chance) for faster degradation of snow levels which would
lead to higher snowfall in the lower elevation of the foothills.
So the potential is there for snow levels as low as 750 feet for
areas along the Coastal Range, around Shasta County, and in the
southern Cascades.

That all being said, our Winter Weather Earning is is in effect
for our mountain and foothills zones for accumulations from up to
1 foot around 1500 to 2500 feet, 1 to 2 feet at 2500 to 3500 feet
and 4 to 8 feet at higher elevations with gusts up to 45-55 mph.

These conditions will create whiteout visibilities with dangerous
to near impossible travel conditions. We will continue to monitor
the lower elevations now as any deviation of snow levels by a
couple hundred feet increase the threat of impacts for communities
within the foothills. If you plan to travel this week, have
backup plans, carry a winter safety kit, and be prepared.

Moderate rainfall and isolated thunderstorms are expected for
areas within the Valley along with gusty southerly winds tonight
through Wednesday. Total rainfall estimates are between 1 and 3
inches for areas the northern San Joaquin Valley and the Sacramento
Valley. Up to 4 inches inches isolated 5 inches within the
northern Sacramento Valley towards the lower foothills. Slick
travel and localized urban and small stream flooding is possible.
Heaviest rain rates expected this evening into Monday afternoon

Winds will also be strong Monday through Wednesday for the
Sacramento Valley with gusts of 35 to 45 mph. Thus, a Wind
Advisory is in effect 10 AM Monday through 10 PM Wednesday for the
Sacramento Valley.

As we push into the later part of next week and into the following
weekend, the troughing over the eastern Pacific continues. This
has been indicated in long term guidance. So, a potential active
pattern looks to continue as we push into the last part of
February.

&&

.AVIATION...

Breezy winds through the Sacramento Valley with gusts up to 20-25
kts until around 00z Monday. Then VFR to MVFR conditions this
afternoon ahead of our weather system that will bring scattered
showers initially to RDD/RBL and by 00z Monday see MVFR conditions
develop elsewhere with IFR conditions at times in areas of
heavier rain. This will continue into the end of the TAF period
with breezy southerly winds.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM PST
Wednesday for Burney Basin / Eastern Shasta County-Motherlode-
Mountains Southwestern Shasta County to Western Colusa County-
Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley-Shasta Lake Area /
Northern Shasta County-West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-Western
Plumas County/Lassen Park.

Wind Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 10 PM PST Wednesday for
Central Sacramento Valley-Northern Sacramento Valley-Southern
Sacramento Valley.

&&

$$