505
FXUS66 KSTO 231846
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1146 AM PDT Tue Jun 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Warm and dry this week with minor to moderate HeatRisk. Breezy
   onshore winds each day will provide relief for the
   Delta/Sacramento Area.

 - A weather system moving across the Pacific NW into the Great
   Basin will bring breezy onshore winds Friday into Saturday
   with a few showers north, followed by the potential for a north
   wind event Sunday into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Warm and dry conditions expected today into Wednesday as ridging
remains in control of the large scale pattern over the area. Above
normal temperatures will rule with 90s to low 100s across the
Valley. This will lead to minor to moderate HeatRisk but no
concerns for heat headlines. Delta Breeze will continue to bring
evening relief thru the Delta into the Sacramento area. Min RHs
will be in the teens to low 20s but wind will remain below RFW
criteria. Wednesday afternoon will see a nonzero chance of a
mountain shower across the northern Shasta County border but
current models keep any developed system north of our area,
tracking eastward.

Thursday is a transition day as cooling trend begins and continues
into the weekend. A deep trough from the Gulf of Alaska will
slowly dig into the Pacific Northwest Friday into the weekend and
gradually move east into the Great Basin. This will serve to
increase onshore flow for our area Friday into Saturday with
breezy southerly winds across the area. This will bring a bit of
moisture with it with the chance for a few showers across far
northern portions of the area and southern Cascades. At this time,
does not look like a big signal for convective activity but will
keep an eye on trends. Current precipitation depict a glancing
blow for our area over the mountains Friday afternoon into
Saturday with still minimal precipitation impacts.

As trough departs, pressure gradient strengthens, leading to the
potential for a north wind event Sunday into Monday. Still some
uncertainty in ensemble solutions with timing and strength of the
trough but will need to monitor for the need for any fire weather
headlines as we get closer to the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period.
Winds 6 to 12 kts in the Valley into 06z Wednesday before
becoming light and variable overnight outside of winds through the
Delta to the Sacramento sites which will gusts up to 15-25 kts
until 12z Wednesday but linger in the Delta.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$