316
FXUS66 KSTO 141924
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1224 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Limited shower and thunderstorm potential this afternoon with
    forecasts keeping activity outside of area

  - Cooler than normal temperatures, mild weather, and drying
    conditions this weekend into early next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Looking at satellite this early afternoon, our cloud cover has
dissipated as temperatures warm throughout the day. Today`s main
weather message is lingering chances for showers and
thunderstorms, although most indications point to activity well
beyond our borders. Currently, there is a 5-10% chance of
thunderstorms over the mountains with best chance to see any
developed storm over the Shasta County NW Mountains during the
afternoon. Main hazards with any developed storm will be
lightning, gusty winds, and brief heavy rain showers.

Looking beyond today, we go into a period of cooler and drier
weather into early next week with afternoon highs in the 80s to
low 90s and daily afternoon onshore breezy weather. Another round
of overcast clouds across the Delta and Valley is expected with a
45-70% chance of occurrence for ceilings less than 2000 feet.
Afternoon humidity conditions trend drier before settling in the
30-50% range across the Valley, outside a pocket of drier
conditions over the northern Sacramento Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions prevail across interior NorCal next 24 hours.
Breezy onshore flow will continue today, with surface winds below
15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts this afternoon and evening as Delta
Breeze increases. Valley winds lower after 04z Friday but will see
continued 15-25 kt gusts over the Delta through 18z Friday.
Mountain thunderstorm chances continue through around 03z Friday
with lingering 10-15% chance on Friday.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$