759
FXUS66 KSTO 142150
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
150 PM PST Sat Feb 14 2026

For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the
next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing.


.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Widespread rain, gusty winds, isolated thunderstorms, and
    substantial mountain snow late Sunday through mid week with
    Major mountain travel impacts and snow levels in the
    foothills.

  - Potential for active weather to continue late next week into
    the following weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...Today and Tonight...

Dry conditions and light southerly winds are expected through the
remainder of today and into tonight. Broken to overcast skies
with lower cloud ceilings as a trough continues to dig into the
eastern Pacific. Temperatures will continue to be near normal
throughout today and tonight ahead of the main upper level system
moving onshore tomorrow bringing precipitation and impacts the
region. Current radar has a few isolated showers in the northern
portions of CA with a low chance of a sprinkle for Shasta county
later this evening and overnight.

...Sunday through Next Week...

A low pressure system moves onshore Sunday evening through mid
week bringing widespread rain, isolated thunderstorms, gusty
winds, and heavy snow. Heaviest precipitation moves onshore and
into the forecast area late Sunday and into Monday and continues
through Tuesday and into Wednesday. Snow levels will be around
4500-5500 feet Sunday night through Monday. 2500 to 3500 feet snow
levels by Monday night and 1500 to 2500 feet Tuesday into
Wednesday. There is some uncertainty with the timing of the cold
push of temperatures which will affect snow level exact timing.
There exists a scenario (30 percent chance) for faster degradation
of snow levels which would lead to higher snowfall in the lower
elevation of the foothills. So the potential is there for snow
levels as low as 1000 feet for areas along the Coastal Range,
around Shasta County, and in the southern Cascades. Accumulations
range from up to 1 foot around 2000 to 2500 feet, 1 to 2 feet at
2500 to 3500 feet and 4 to 8 feet at higher elevations. Wind gusts
of 45 to 55mph are expected in the higher elevations. The Winter
Storm Watch was upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM
Sunday through 10 PM Wednesday for the foothills and mountain
zones.

If you plan to travel this holiday weekend through the mountains
travel the rest of today before conditions start to deteriorate
Sunday as the system moves onshore. Snow will be heavy and winds
will be out of the south, with gusts up to 45 to 55mph. Heavy
snow and whiteout visibilities create dangerous to near
impossible travel conditions. We will continue to monitor the
lower elevations as any deviation of snow levels by a couple
hundred feet increase the threat of impacts for communities within
the foothills. If you plan to travel this weekend, have backup
plans, carry a winter safety kit, and be prepared.

Moderate rainfall and isolated thunderstorms are expected for
areas within the Valley along with gusty southerly winds Sunday
night through Wednesday. Total rainfall estimates are between 1
and 3 inches for areas within the northern San Joaquin Valley and
into the Sacramento Valley. Up to 4 inches inches isolated 5
inches within the northern Sacramento Valley towards the lower
foothills. Slick travel and localized urban and small stream
flooding is possible. Winds will also be strong Monday through
Wednesday for the Sacramento Valley with gusts of 35 to 45mph.
Thus, a Wind Advisory is in effect 10 AM Monday through 10 PM
Wednesday for the Sacramento Valley.

As we push into the later part of next week and into the following
weekend, the troughing over the eastern Pacific continues. This
has been indicated in long term guidance. So, a potential active
pattern looks to continue as we push into the last part of
February.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR conditions continue for RDD and RBL as ceilings remain low
thanks to increased cloud coverage and VCSH around the area. Areas
around Sacramento and into the northern San Joaquin area will
remain VFR through 02-05z before ceilings drop to MVFR. Rain will
move into RDD and RBL around 6z and continue through the end of
the TAF period. Areas in Sacramento will see rain move in around
12z through the end of the TAF period. Winds will be light and out
of the south through the TAF period.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM Sunday to 10 PM PST Wednesday
for Burney Basin / Eastern Shasta County-Motherlode-Mountains
Southwestern Shasta County to Western Colusa County-Northeast
Foothills/Sacramento Valley-Shasta Lake Area / Northern Shasta
County-West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas
County/Lassen Park.

Wind Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 10 PM PST Wednesday for
Central Sacramento Valley-Northern Sacramento Valley-Southern
Sacramento Valley.

&&

$$