390
FXUS66 KSTO 291910
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1210 PM PDT Sun Mar 29 2026

For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the
next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing.

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Well above normal temperatures continue today with Minor
   HeatRisk and dry conditions

 - Pattern change next week brings light rain and mountain snow
   chances, thunderstorms, breezy winds and cooler temperatures
   back to the region beginning on Tuesday- Thursday

 - Drying and warming conditions return by next weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...Today...
A few high passing clouds are visible on GOES-18 satellite this
afternoon, other than that, mostly clear skies and warming high
temperatures will prevail across the region. High temperatures
will once again climb into the low to upper 80s; warmest in the
central/southern Sacramento Valley, Delta, and northern San
Joaquin Valley. Our upper level pattern, still influenced by
ridging, will begin to flatten out tonight into tomorrow as an
upper level will build in the PacNW, breaking the hold of high
pressure across our region.

...Monday-Thursday...
High temperatures will fall tomorrow, with the biggest drop in the
northern Sacramento Valley, into the mid 70s to mid 80s, still
warmest in the central/southern portions of the CWA. As heights
flatten to a more westerly orientation tomorrow, light rain
showers will be possible in the northern Sacramento Valley in the
early afternoon hours. By Tuesday, troughing has move into the
region and will introduce widespread light rain shower chances,
mountain snow, breezy to gusty southerly winds, and isolated
thunderstorms continuing through Thursday. Best chances for
beneficial rain will be in the northern Sacramento Valley, along
with the possibility of thunderstorms as main wave of energy moves
inland. Mountain snow levels are roughly 6500 feet Wednesday,
then falling to 5000-6000 feet Thursday. Highest totals will be
along the peaks in the southern Cascades and northern Sierra.
Around 4-6 inches of snow accumulation is expected, mainly above
6000 feet; locally higher along peaks. Breezy southerly winds will
accompany this system as well, with gusts of 25-35 mph in the
Valley; strongest in the northern Sacramento Valley and NE
Foothills. Stronger south-southwesterly wind gusts of 35-45 mph in
the mountains will also be possible on Wednesday.

...Next Weekend...
By Friday, we will begin to dry out as the weather system moves
into the Northern Plains. Ridging will once again build in the
eastern Pacific, which will allow for drying and northerly winds
to develop across the area. Current NBM probabilities of 35 mph
or more on Friday are around 60-70% along and west of the I-5
corridor. While the drying conditions and potential for strong
north winds exists, fuels are not quite at the level to consider
any Fire Weather products at this time. However, if we continue
long periods of drying and warm temperatures, fuels may continue
to cure ahead of seasonal norm. High temperatures are forecast to
rise back into low to mid 80s in the Valley by Saturday, prompting
the return of Widespread Minor HeatRisk in the Valley on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours across the area.
Generally light (below 12 kts) northerly surface winds for TAF
sites, shifting to light southerly winds 22Z-04Z for the northern
Sacramento Valley. Westerly gusts up to 20 kts over higher
mountains. Chances of -SHRA in Shasta County after 18z Monday.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$