804
FXUS66 KSTO 222012
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
112 PM PDT Tue Sep 22 2026

For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the
next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing.


.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Periodically breezy winds and warming temperatures, peaking
    on Thursday with areas of Moderate HeatRisk in the Valley.

  - Isolated shower and storm chances around Shasta county
    Thursday night into Friday.

  - Potential for unsettled weather and increased onshore winds
    over the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...Today through Thursday...

Satellite and radar across northern California are clear this
afternoon, with temperatures reaching into the 80s this afternoon.
Periodic breezy winds around the Delta are possible this
afternoon and evening, with a marine layer moving in overnight
through the Sacramento Metro. Confidence remains low on how low
cloud ceilings will be during the morning hours around the
Sacramento area. We are expecting a warm up tomorrow and
Thursday, with temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s tomorrow
and low to mid 90s on Thursday. Areas of Moderate HeatRisk are
expected within the southern Sacramento Valley towards the
northern San Joaquin Valley on Thursday.

The increased temperatures will be brief as an approaching system
toward our north will help generate onshore flow and cool
temperatures end of the week and into the weekend. We will also
see a slight push of moisture across portions of the Coastal Range
and parts of Shasta County. Enough moisture and forcing are
present that a slight chance for a shower or isolated storm are
possible along Shasta County as the system moves through. The main
timeframe would be around 10pm Thursday night through 8am Friday
morning.

As we move toward Friday and beyond temperatures will be near
seasonal across the area, with periodic onshore flow. This will
help bring more morning cloud cover for parts of the Valley at
times. Indications are there that we may see a change in our
pattern aloft over the weekend and into early next week. However,
confidence remains low on development of any system, track, and
moisture push into the region. Guidance continues to push chances
further into the long term and towards Day 7. We will continue to
monitor any potential change of the pattern and what that would
mean for northern California.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions continue through the rest of today and into
tonight. FEW to SKC for clouds today, with breezy conditions at
times within the Delta this afternoon/evening. Overnight winds go
light and variable and the signal is there for SCT to BKN clouds
around the Sacramento sites. Right now we are looking at VFR
conditions around 12-18z for all sites, but there is a slight
chance for MVFR around the Sacramento sites 12-18z due to lower
ceilings.


&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$