458
FXUS66 KSTO 142100
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
100 PM PST Sat Nov 14 2026

For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the
next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing.

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Break in active weather today, with cooler high temperatures.

 - A storm system arrives Sunday bringing widespread
   Valley/Foothill rain, mountain snow, and breezy southerly winds
   through Monday; not as impactful as recent system.

 - Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 4 PM Sunday through 10
   PM Monday for the Sierra and Lassen Volcanic National Park
   above 6000 feet.

 - Colder, wetter weather system will arrive by the middle of
   next week bringing widespread precipitation, moderate to heavy
   mountain snow, and gusty southerly winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...Today...
Dry weather prevails across interior NorCal this afternoon. High
temperatures will reach into the upper 50s to mid 60s in the
Valley and Delta, with upper 30s to 50s in the higher elevations.
Our next shot at precipitation will arrive by early Sunday
morning as another storm arrives.

...Sunday through Monday...
The next system arrives early Sunday morning, bringing widespread
rain, mountain snow and breezy southerly winds. Latest WPC
guidance indicates around 0.25 to 1" inches of precipitation in
the Valley, with 1.5" to nearly 2" over the mountains. The highest
precipitation totals are expected across the northern Sacramento
Valley and foothills and mountains. Snow levels initially start
around 6500-7500 feet Sunday, then drop to around 5000-6000 feet
Monday. Total snowfall accumulations of 2 to 6 inches are
expected above 6000 feet, with up to 14 inches near Lassen Park.
This could bring slippery roads, reduced visibilities at times,
and mountain travel delays. A Winter Weather Advisory has been
issued for elevations above 6000 feet for the northern Sierra and
Lassen Park. There is the potential for minor accumulations down
to around 5500 feet. Periods of breezy southerly winds will also
develop Sunday ahead of the system`s arrival, with gusts in the
Valley around 20 to 35 mph. Most of the area will see an end to
widespread precipitation by Monday afternoon, with lingering
showers over the mountains through Monday night.

...Tuesday & Beyond...
With potentially clear skies behind the departing system, cold
morning lows are forecast on Tuesday, with low to mid 30s across
the northern Sacramento Valley and teens to 20s in the mountains.
This could bring the potential for morning frost.

Break in activity for most of Tuesday across interior NorCal, then
a colder, wetter system arrives late Tuesday night bringing
renewed chances for widespread rain, gusty southerly winds, and
heavy mountain snow. Latest forecast runs have increased rainfall
totals and snow totals across interior NorCal. Current NBM
probabilities of at least 12 inches of snow above 5000 feet are
around 70-100% from Wednesday-Thursday night, and a 40-70% chance
of seeing 2 feet of snow. Snow levels will be lower with this
system, with accumulating snow above 4000 feet and potentially
even lower. Valley/Foothill rain probabilities of at least 1" inch
are sitting around 60-80%. Gusty southerly winds look to develop
Wednesday into Thursday morning, with latest forecast runs
bringing around 50-75% probabilities of wind gusts reaching at
least 35 mph on Wednesday. There is also the potential for
isolated thunderstorms with this system, with best chances on
Wednesday (10-15% probability).

We will continue to monitor trends on this system, as snow levels
may be significantly lower than the previous storms. Make sure to
keep checking the forecast for updates as we move through the
weekend and into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions with patchy MVFR/IFR ceilings at TAF sites through
tonight, then local MVFR/IFR in RA/BR after 12Z-18Z Sunday. Winds
generally less than 12 kts through 03Z Sunday, then southerly
winds increase up to 10-20 kts with gusts 20-30 kts. Southwest
wind gusts over the Sierra Crest 35 to 45 kts after 18Z Sunday
along with mountain MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions in RA/SN.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 10 PM PST Monday for
Lassen Volcanic NP-Sierra (Cal-Tuo) Above 5000 ft-Sierra (El
Dorado-Amador) Above 5000 ft-Sierra (Sierra-Placer) Above 5000
ft.

&&

$$