946
FXUS66 KSTO 092245
AFDSTO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
245 PM PST Mon Nov 9 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather, above normal temperatures, and periodically breezy
north to east winds Tuesday through Friday morning
- Increased confidence in an active weather pattern late week
into early the next week
- Gusty southerly winds on Friday and Saturday, trending
stronger
- Increasing potential for widespread rain, moderate to heavy
rain and snow in the mountains; Low confidence persists in the
exact timing and amount of potential precipitation
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today-Thursday:
A weak shortwave moving through today is bringing a band of high-
level clouds across the area. This system is flattening out the
high pressure ridge that is across the region. A slight chance of
light showers continues over far northwestern Shasta County this
afternoon and early evening, with radar showing some returns early
this afternoon. Otherwise, mostly dry and seasonably warm
temperatures. There is a potential for fog/mist late tonight into
Tuesday morning, but mainly south of I-80, with a 20-60% chance
of visibility dropping below a mile.
Temperatures are still on track peak for the week on Tuesday
afternoon as the high pressure will rebuild, with temperatures
about 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. This will aid
in high temperatures for the Delta, Valley and Foothills peaking
into the mid 60s to upper 70s. Dry and warm temperatures will
persist through Thursday. This pattern will bring some breezy
northerly winds in the Valley Tuesday. Gusts should generally be
limited to 15 to 20 mph, peaking mid-day. East to northeast winds
develop over mountain ridges and through canyons Tuesday night
into early Wednesday, with gusts locally to around 20 to 25 mph.
Friday through Sunday:
Confidence in a cool, wet, unsettled pattern late week into early
the next week continues to increase. Ensembles continue to show
an active weather pattern by the weekend, with gusty winds,
widespread precipitation with chances for moderate to heavy rain
and snow in the mountains. Timing of the general onset of
precipitation has sped up some, currently converging on Friday
morning as the first of a pair of shortwaves moves in. The current
Friday forecast rainfall totals are 1-2" for the mountains,
0.25-0.50" in the Valley and Delta. There is also the potential
for isolated thunderstorms Friday, with a 10-15% probability in
the afternoon.
The likely wettest period will be over the weekend, from late
Saturday through Sunday, with up to an additional 3" in the
mountains, 0.5" in the Valley. With a relatively slow start to the
water year, the ground is not saturated and rivers/streams are
relatively low, which help to mitigate flood concerns.
Anyone with weekend mountain travel should be sure to stay up to
date with the latest forecast information. Snow levels start
around 7000-8000`, dropping to 5000-6000` Sunday night, to around
5000` Monday. There is a 50-75% probability of storm total
snowfall greater than 8" by Monday afternoon over the Sierra and
around the Lassen NP area. There is about a 40-60% chance for more
than a foot of snow.
A notable change in the forecast has been an increase in windor
outdoor plansgusts late in the week, particularly on Friday, as
well as Saturday. There is a 60-70% probability of gusts greater
than 40 mph for the northern Sacramento Valley centered around Red
Bluff and the northeast foothills. Gusts to 20 to 30 mph are
forecast for much of the rest of the Valley and Delta, and up to
60 mph in the Sierra. Gusty but slightly weaker winds are expected
Saturday as well. Wind gusts like these could make driving
difficult, as well as bring down tree branches and blow down
unsecured objects.
&&
.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions at TAF sites, with local MVFR/IFR
visibility reductions in FG/BR , mainly for the northern San
Joaquin Valley after 10z and through 18z. Light and variable
winds persist across the forecast period at TAF sites.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
