355
FXUS66 KSTO 060827
AFDSTO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1227 AM PST Fri Nov 6 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather, above normal temperatures, and periodically breezy
winds through the weekend and into next week
- Slight chance for light rain showers in Shasta County early
next week
- Potential shift toward active weather pattern mid to late next
week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today-Saturday:
The upper level pattern begins shifting toward ridging aloft
today into the weekend alongside rising heights aloft. The
resulting appreciable weather at the surface will remain
seasonable to warm with periodically breezy north to east winds
Today into Saturday AM. Downslope east-northeast winds will remain
strongest along the Sierra during the overnight and early morning
hours. As ridging amplifies across interior NorCal and troughing
digs in over the Desert Southwest, a period of enhanced gusts 25
to 35 mph look to develop tonight into Saturday AM for the Sierra
and adjacent foothills.
As ridging aloft amplifies across Interior NorCal alongside
reinforcing surface high pressure this afternoon into Saturday,
high temperatures look to trend a bit warmer then early November
normals with widespread Valley and foothills high temperatures in
the low to mid 70s and widespread mountain high temperatures
firmly into the 60s. With the transition from northwesterly flow
aloft to ridging aloft, winds are expected to decrease throughout
the day on Saturday, remaining generally light area wide across
the rest of the weekend.
Sunday-Next Week:
As the ridge axis shifts eastward a broad area of west-souhwest
flow and weak troughing aloft looks to build in Sunday into next
week. Despite this upper level shift, high heights aloft look to
persist at least into the middle of next week. This flow pattern
should usher in a gradual return toward light onshore flow
alongside continued warmer than normal high temperatures. While
available moisture early to mid next week will limit overall
precipitation potential area wide, any ejecting shortwaves have
the potential to introduce at least light shower chances for
portions of Shasta County early next week.
Ensemble guidance still generally indicates potential for a shift
toward an active weather pattern, including chances for heavy
rain and heavy mountain snow, around the mid to late next week
period. While a general trend toward more widespread precipitation
onset late next week is being indicated by latest ensemble
guidance, ensemble consensus remains largely uncertain and
noncommittal with respect to exact timing. The anticipated
southward progression of deep troughing over the Gulf of Alaska
toward the California coast remains the largest piece of
uncertainty at this time. Persistent ridging and high heights
aloft across much of interior California have so far staved off
this robust system. Despite the deep fetch of available moisture
offshore, there remains notedly low confidence for the forecast
relative to this potential pattern shift. Regardless, the CPC 8-14
Day Outlook (Nov. 13-19) does continue to highlight a moderate
risk for heavy rain and heavy mountain snow, as well as a slight
chance for high winds which can be anticipated once the pattern
does indeed shift. Be sure to stay up to date with the latest
forecast information and check back for updates as we get closer.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail at TAF sites
over the next 24 hours, although a 20-40% chance of reductions to
MVFR/IFR remains forecast for SCK/MOD and Sacramento area sites
through 16z this morning. Winds trend lighter today, remaining
less than 12 kts at TAF sites, but still from a generally north to
east direction. Breezy east-northeast winds look to continue
along the Sierra and foothills through 16z this morning with a
secondary period of stronger downslope winds gusting 20-30 kts
then anticipated after 00z Saturday.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
