984
FXUS66 KSTO 152028
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
128 PM PDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather continues this week. Near normal high temperatures
expected through early this week with periods on breezy onshore
flow. Warming trend by Tuesday, followed by areas of Moderate
HeatRisk in the Valley and foothills on Wednesday. Cooling trend
expected late next week with stronger onshore flow Thursday-
Friday. Potential for gusty northerly winds and elevated fire
weather conditions next weekend.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Today-Monday:

 -Seasonable temperatures are expected through early this week.

 -Probability of Valley High Temperatures > 90F:
  --Northern/Central Sacramento Valley: 50-90%
  --Delta, S. Sac Valley, N. San Joaquin Valley: 35-70%

 -Onshore flow expected to persist with periods of breezy winds,
  mainly in the afternoons and evenings and strongest across the
  Delta and vicinity. Breezy westerlies over the Sierra.

 -Low humidity may bring a brief period of elevated fire weather
  conditions across western portions of the northern San Joaquin
  Valley Monday afternoon.

* Tuesday-Wednesday:

 - Above normal temperatures with areas of Moderate HeatRisk in
   the Valley and foothills by Wednesday as ridging develops.
   Potential for triple digit heat in the northern Sacramento
   Valley (40-80% probability); mid to upper 90s in other Valley
   locations.

 -Probability of Valley High Temperatures > 95F:
  --Northern/Central Sacramento Valley: 50-90% Tue, 70-100% Wed,
   35-65% Thu
  --Delta, S. Sacramento Valley, N. San Joaquin Valley: 10-20%
   Tue & Thu, 50-85% Wed

 -Warming and drying trend by mid-week may bring a brief period of
  elevated fire weather conditions, mainly across the northern
  Sacramento Valley.

*Thursday-Next Weekend:

 -Gradual cooling trend expected with stronger onshore flow
  Thursday-Friday. Strongest winds expected through the Delta and
  over the Sierra.

 -Brief period of elevated fire weather conditions possible across
  the northern Sacramento Valley late this week due a combination
  of low humidity and locally breezy winds.

 -Gusty northerly winds develop next weekend. Probability of wind
  gusts > 30 mph: 50-85% Saturday across the Sacramento Valley
  and Delta.

 -The combination of gusty northerly winds and lowering humidity
  could bring elevated fire weather conditions next weekend.

.Changes from previous forecast...
 -Northerly winds have been trending stronger for next weekend
  with the potential for elevated fire weather conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions with mostly clear skies will continue at TAF sites
over the next 24 hours. Surface winds generally below 12 kts,
except in the vicinity of the Delta area, where there will be
sustained winds around 15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts throughout
the next 24 hours.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$