607
FXUS66 KSTO 171942
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1242 PM PDT Fri Jul 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions into Saturday with
   breezy afternoon winds

 - Chances for monsoonal moisture and thunderstorms Sunday into
   midweek next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Another rinse and repeat forecast for today with clear skies and
warm weather with daily afternoon onshore breezes. Afternoon
highs will generally be in the 90s outside of the northern
Sacramento Valley where near or at triple digit highs remain
possible through the weekend. Onshore flow each day will see
gusts up to 15-25 mph, strongest over the Delta before weakening
overnight.

Forecast still point to ridging to the east and the troughing to
the west, giving us a monsoonal push creating shower and
thunderstorm chances Sunday through early next week. Current
outlooks have delayed the best chances with midweek next now as
the best chances to see mountain thunderstorms and showers with
best chances south of Interstate 80. There is still disagreement
in the exact alignment of the moisture which will determine how
far west and into the Valley we may see precipitation. As of
Friday morning, most likely outcome is similar to this week`s run
of mountain activity with increased moisture overall but confining
observed precipitation impacts to the foothills and mountains. We
will continue to monitor the weather system and if there is any
fire weather/precipitation concerns.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions prevail across interior NorCal TAF sites next 24
hours. Onshore flow continues for Sacramento Valley sites and
northern San Joaquin Valley sites, with occasional surface gusts
up to 20 kts. Gusts in Delta around 25 to 30 kts through 13z
Saturday. Winds weaken after 06z Saturday across area, except in
Delta vicinity.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$