398
FXUS66 KSTO 072236
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
236 PM PST Sat Nov 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Mainly dry weather, above normal temperatures, and
   periodically breezy winds continue through the weekend and into
   the middle of next week

 - Patchy morning fog is possible in the Valley and Delta through
   Wednesday

 - Potential shift toward active weather pattern late next week.
   Low confidence persists in the timing of potential
   precipitation, with the onset continuing to trend a little
   later.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today-Mid-Week:

Warm and mainly dry weather continues with general upper level
ridging. A weak disturbance brushes to the north on Monday, with
just a slight chance of light rain over western Shasta and Tehama
counties Monday afternoon. High temperatures will remain a few
degrees above normal, with widespread low 70s to mid 70s this
week.

Winds will generally be light and onshore. This will allow
increasing low level moisture. Along with mostly clear skies, this
will bring increasing potential for patchy fog for the Delta, the
northern San Joaquin Valley, and the southern Sacramento Valley.
The latest probabilities for visibility less than 1/2 mile (fog)
are around 55-65% each morning.

As deep troughing over the Gulf of Alaska begins to drift
southward around the middle of the week, another ridge builds in
late Tuesday-Wednesday, allowing temperatures to warm further,
peaking for the week around 8 degrees above normal, with some mid
70s as high in portions of the Valley. This pattern would also
bring north winds in the Valley, and northeast to east wnds in the
mountains and foothills. Gust in the Valley up to 20 mph, up to
25 to 35 mph over Sierra ridges and through northeast aligned
canyons.

Late Next Week:

There continues to be considerable uncertainty late next week. Ensembles
continue to indicate the potential for a shift toward an active
weather pattern, with chances for heavy rain, heavy mountain snow
and breezy winds. There is a general trend for a slower onset of
this pattern, though. Cluster guidance still indicates
significant uncertainty regarding the position and timing of the
upcoming trough, with a range of possibilities evident. The
speed of deep troughing over the Gulf of Alaska dropping toward
the California coast remains uncertain. While precipitation could
begins as early as Thursday, the latest trends suggest higher
confidence for later Friday and even more so over the weekend. Be
sure to stay up to date with the latest forecast information and
check back for updates as we get closer.

&&

.AVIATION...

General VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail at TAF
sites through 06z this evening, although there is already some
local MVFR visibility in the northern San Joaquin already, with
increasing potential for MVFR/IFR/LIFR visibility in FG/BR
expanding there and into the southern Sacramento Valley and Delta
after 09z tonight. Winds will be light, remaining less than 12 kts
at TAF sites.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$